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YESTERDAY'S RESULT -- STL 7, NYM 0
STL 0 0 4 0 2 0 1 0 0 -- 7
NYM 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -- 0
Cardinals shut out the Mets 7-0 behind a 6-inning, 4-hit, 6-K start from Dustin May (1 BB, 0 R). Burleson went 2-for-5 with a HR and a double, 3 RBI. Herrera was 3-for-3 with 3 runs scored. The Cardinals broke through with 4 in the 3rd (Wetherholt 2-RBI single, Walker RBI double, Nootbaar RBI groundout), then added 2 more in the 5th (Burleson 2-run HR) and 1 in the 7th (Burleson RBI double) -- a balanced road win that gives STL the series lead.
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PREDICTION GRADES
CORRECT -- Soto reaches base: Soto went 1 H + 1 BB = 2 reaches. Threshold: 2+. 2 >= 2.
WRONG -- May walks: May issued 1 BB in 6.0 IP. Needed 3+. WRONG -- Peralta strikeouts: Peralta recorded 5 K in 6.0 IP. Needed 7+. CORRECT -- Burleson reaches base: Burleson went 2 H + 0 BB = 2 reaches. Threshold: 2+. 2 >= 2. WRONG -- NYM TTO2 scoring: Mets scored 0 runs in innings 4-6 (and 0 all game). Threshold: 2+. Hit rate: 2/5 (40%) | ||||||
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BOTTOM LINE
EDGE: Warren has 9.1 career IP and 1 GS -- this is a spot start, not a typical SP usage. The Cardinals reach the Mets bullpen earlier than normal, and their 4 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Gorman, Church) get the side of Warren's split that has shown vulnerability: .214 / .353 / .429 / .782 OPS with a HR in 17 career PA vs LHB.
THREAT: The Mets' career BvP card against Pallante tilts the wrong way four times -- Vientos 2-for-4 with a HR in 5 PA, Alvarez 2-for-3 with a walk in 4 PA, Melendez 3-for-7 in 7 PA, Bichette 2-for-6. None individually significant; the pattern repeats in one direction. WATCH: Pallante's second pass through the order. His 2025 TTO2 line is .309 AVG, .487 SLG, .868 OPS in 270 PA -- well clear of the first pass (.720 OPS) and the third pass (.691 OPS). Innings 4-6 are where this game can break open in either direction. | ||||||
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KEY MATCHUPS
Alec Burleson vs Austin Warren. 1 career PA between them, so the profile carries this. Burleson sits at .296 / .353 / .478 in 419 PA vs RHP -- the cleanest profile bat in the lineup -- and Warren has allowed .214 / .353 / .429 / .782 OPS to LHB with a HR in his 17-PA career vs-LHB sample. The leverage swing tonight.
Juan Soto vs Andre Pallante. 1-for-9 with 2 BB in 11 career PA -- the only opposing-lineup BvP that crosses 10 PA. Pallante has held him to .111 / .273 / .111, no HR. Pair that with Soto's 17.8% 2025 BB% and expect him to be pitched around in any leverage spot.
Mark Vientos vs Andre Pallante. 5 career PA: 2-for-4 with a HR and a BB (.500 / .600 / 1.250). Tiny sample, but the loudest BvP line on the page in either direction and a clear danger spot when he comes up.
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WATCHLIST
-- Pallante TTO2 window (270 PA in the 2025 sample). .309 AVG / .487 SLG / .868 OPS in the second pass through the order. The window where Pallante's outings have historically tilted.
-- Warren workload limit. 9.1 career IP, 1 GS -- the Mets bullpen takes over earlier than usual. Watch warm-ups behind him from the third inning on.
-- Romero vs Svanson with traffic. Romero strands 88.5% of inherited runners (3 of 26); Svanson 50.0% (13 of 26). Which arm enters with runners on decides the middle innings.
-- Soto on the bases. 38 SB and a 90.5% career success rate. Cardinals battery (Pages catching, 0.994 fielding pct) is clean, but Soto runs on green-light regardless of receiver.
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Warren Is a Spot Start. Cardinals Get the Mets Bullpen Early.
Jun 10, 2026
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2 min read