Walker targets Irvin's weak side as Cardinals look to avoid sweep

WSH  2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 4 -- 8
STL  0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 1 1 -- 5

Washington took the second game of the series last night, 8-5 in 11 innings, as a four-run top of the 11th broke a 4-4 tie. José Fermín and Iván Herrera each went 3-for-5 to lead the offense, and Pedro Pagés added 2-for-4 with an RBI single that tied it in the ninth.

THE BREAKDOWN

WHAT WORKED
- José Fermín went 3-for-5 with an RBI single in the seventh that cut the deficit to 3-2.
- Iván Herrera went 3-for-5, part of a 14-hit Cardinals effort on the night.
- Pedro Pagés went 2-for-4, including the ninth-inning single that scored Nathan Church to tie it 3-3 and force extras.
- Masyn Winn's single in the bottom of the 10th scored Leo Bernal to tie it 4-4 and extend the game to the 11th.

WHAT DIDN'T
- Daylen Lile's two-run homer in the first put St. Louis in a 2-0 hole before they batted, a deficit they chased all night.
- Leo Bernal was charged with catcher interference in the top of the 11th that opened the door for Washington's decisive four-run rally.
- Gordon Graceffo allowed four runs in the 11th -- including José Tena's two-run double -- turning a tied game into an 8-4 deficit.
- Jordan Walker went 0-for-6 with four strikeouts, leaving runs on the table in a game decided by three.

BOTTOM LINE

Edge: Jordan Walker ranks 12th of 169 NL hitters with at least 200 plate appearances in HR (28; league average 14.1), the lineup's clearest power threat against a right-hander who ranks 114th of 128 NL pitchers in ERA. Walker's 2026 line against right-handed pitching reads .780 OPS across 470 plate appearances, up sharply from last season. The Cardinals need to avoid a sweep at home after dropping the first two games of this series to Washington.

Threat: James Wood ranks 3rd of 169 NL hitters with at least 200 plate appearances in OPS (.909; league average .732). He is stronger against right-handed pitching this season: .955 OPS against right-handers, compared with .825 OPS against left-handers. Quinn Mathews is a left-hander, which sends Wood to his weaker side -- and that weaker side still ranks 43rd of 158 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances vs left-handed pitching (league average .735).

Watch: Iván Herrera ranks 23rd of 169 NL hitters with at least 200 plate appearances in OBP (.358; league average .324). Batting second, he is the lineup's table-setter -- if he reaches base early against Irvin, he puts Walker in position to do damage.

Jake Irvin vs. the Cardinal right-handed bats. Jake Irvin ranks 114th of 128 NL pitchers with at least 60 innings in ERA (5.51; league average 3.93), and St. Louis sends six right-handed batters at him this afternoon. His weaker side this season is against right-handed batters: .824 OPS allowed across 170 batters faced, compared with .730 OPS allowed against left-handed batters across 256 batters faced. Jordan Walker (55th of 227 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances vs. right-handed pitching) and Masyn Winn (.596 OPS vs. right-handed pitching across 382 PA, 182nd of 227) represent opposite ends of that right-handed group against Irvin. Thomas Saggese carries .617 OPS vs. right-handed pitching across 109 PA (174th of 227).

Quinn Mathews -- second pass. Quinn Mathews's second pass is his weakest stretch this season: .836 OPS allowed across 54 PA in starts where he reached a third pass. Mathews has pitched into a third pass in 6 of 7 starts. Washington batters seeing him a second time enter his most vulnerable window of the game.

Jake Irvin -- third pass. Jake Irvin has pitched into a third pass in 14 of 19 starts. In those starts, hitters produced .597 OPS against him on the third pass (65 PA) -- well below the .870 OPS they posted in the second pass of those same starts (126 PA). If the Cardinals lineup gets deep enough into Irvin to force a third pass, that window is historically his sharpest.

-- Quinn Mathews home split. Mathews has held hitters to a .510 OPS allowed and a 1.46 ERA at Busch Stadium this season, against .765 on the road -- but the home sample is too small to grade (48 batters faced; floor 60).

-- Nasim Nuñez and CJ Abrams baserunning. If either reaches base, the running game is live: Nasim Nuñez is 46-for-56 on steal attempts this season (82.1% success), and CJ Abrams is 32-for-38 (84.2%). Pedro Pagés has thrown out 31.7% of steal attempts in 2026 (19 CS in 60 attempts); Leo Bernal, the other catcher in the projected lineup, has caught 3 of 19. That is the context for any green light Washington's manager chooses to give.

-- Keibert Ruiz contact rate. Ruiz ranks 8th of 169 NL hitters with at least 200 plate appearances in K% (10.6%; league average 21.8%) -- if he bats with runners on, Mathews will need to get him out on contact rather than a strikeout.