Walker faces May on his weaker side while Bauers gets Mathews at his best: handedness cuts both ways tonight in Milwaukee

STL  0 0 0 1 0 0 3 0 0 -- 4
MIL  1 0 0 1 2 0 0 4 0 -- 8

The Cardinals fell to the Brewers 8-4 last night, dropping the series opener. Milwaukee scored in four separate innings and held St. Louis to 6 hits in 33 at-bats; Iván Herrera (home run, 19) and a seventh-inning pair from Jordan Walker (29) and Alec Burleson (25) accounted for all four Cardinals runs, but Brice Turang went 3-for-5 with 3 RBI to pace the Brewers.

THE BREAKDOWN

WHAT WORKED
- Jordan Walker homered (29) to center field in the seventh, part of a three-run inning that tied the game 4-4.
- Alec Burleson followed with a home run (25) to right field, scoring Leo Bernal to complete the seventh-inning rally.
- Iván Herrera hit a solo home run (19) in the fourth to tie the game 1-1.
- Brycen Mautz threw 1.1 scoreless innings in relief, allowing no hits.

WHAT DIDN'T
- The Cardinals went 6-for-33 with 1 walk; five of nine starters finished hitless.
- Michael McGreevy allowed 9 hits and 4 runs in 4.2 innings before exiting.
- Justin Bruihl allowed 3 runs (1 earned) on 1 hit in the eighth without recording an out, as a 4-4 tie became an 8-4 deficit. - Brice Turang went 3-for-5 with 3 RBI, driving in the first run on a first-inning double and adding two more with an eighth-inning single that broke the game open.

BOTTOM LINE

Edge: Jordan Walker is the Cardinals' clearest power threat tonight, ranking 13th of 172 NL hitters with at least 200 plate appearances in HR (29). He faces Dustin May on his weaker side this season: .775 OPS against right-handed pitching, compared with .874 OPS against left-handed pitching.

Threat: Jake Bauers ranks 2nd of 172 NL hitters with at least 200 plate appearances in OBP (.391). He faces Quinn Mathews on his stronger side this season: .927 OPS against left-handed pitching, compared with .863 OPS against right-handed pitching.

Watch: Leo Bernal went 2-for-4 last night and brings a strong split against right-handed pitching (.854 OPS across 68 plate appearances, 22nd of 232 NL batters) into tonight's lineup -- if he sees consistent at-bats against May, he is the Cardinals' name to watch.

May vs Cardinals RHB-heavy lineup. Dustin May is stronger against right-handed batters this season: .649 OPS allowed, compared with .753 OPS allowed against left-handed batters. St. Louis sends six right-handed bats against him tonight -- the Cardinals' order lands predominantly on his stronger side. Among NL pitchers with at least 60 batters faced vs right-handed batters, May ranks 87th of 244 (.649; league average .698). Jordan Walker, batting third, is stronger against left-handed pitching this season (.874 OPS vs LHP across 173 PA), landing on May's tougher side; against right-handed pitching Walker carries a .775 OPS across 486 PA, 55th of 232 NL batters. Masyn Winn's 2026 line vs right-handed pitching reads .594 OPS across 391 PA, 187th of 232 NL batters.

Mathews vs Brewers LHB-heavy lineup. Quinn Mathews's 2026 sample against left-handed batters carries 52 batters faced -- too small to report a reliable platoon edge. His right-handed sample clears the floor: .690 OPS allowed across 138 batters faced, 111th of 244 NL pitchers with at least 60 batters faced vs right-handed batters (league average .698). Milwaukee sends six left-handed bats tonight. Jake Bauers, batting fourth, ranks 11th of 164 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances vs left-handed pitching in OPS (.927; league average .726). Brice Turang hits left-handed pitching at .598 OPS across 198 PA, 138th of 164; Christian Yelich carries .610 OPS vs left-handed pitching across 130 PA, 132nd of 164 NL batters.

May home/away split. Dustin May is stronger at home this season: .635 OPS allowed, compared with .820 OPS allowed on the road. Tonight he pitches at American Family Field -- the Cardinals face his better self. Among NL pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched at home, May ranks 99th of 197 in ERA (home) (3.87; league average 3.91). His road ERA ranks 171st of 189 NL pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched on the road (5.88; league average 4.05) -- a split the Cardinals cannot use tonight.

-- Jake Bauers. If Bauers reaches base against Quinn Mathews, watch his walk rate as the primary mechanism -- he ranks 4th of 172 NL hitters with at least 200 plate appearances in BB% (16.3%; league average 9.0%).

-- Mathews second pass. If the Brewers' lineup reaches Mathews a second time, watch for the divergence in outcomes by hitter. Mathews has pitched into a third pass in 7 of his 8 starts; in the starts where he reached a third pass, his second-pass sample of 63 PA produced a .790 OPS against. Brice Turang (.598 OPS vs left-handed pitching this season, 198 PA) and Jake Bauers represent opposite ends of the exposure spectrum among the left-handed bats in tonight's Milwaukee lineup.

-- Jordan Walker. If Walker reaches hitter's counts against Dustin May, watch whether he can lift the ball -- his 2026 ground-out share is 49.3% against a 47.3% league average (48.9% ground-ball rate in 2025), and he faces May on the side where May holds a platoon advantage tonight.

-- Iván Herrera. If Herrera sees multiple plate appearances against May, watch his on-base ability as the counter to May's platoon edge -- Herrera ranks 25th of 172 NL hitters with at least 200 plate appearances in OBP (.355; league average .322), though he faces May tonight on his weaker side: .701 OPS against right-handed pitching across 492 plate appearances this season, compared with .835 OPS against left-handed pitching.