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YESTERDAY'S RESULT -- PIT 6, STL 2
PIT 1 0 0 1 0 2 2 0 0 -- 6
STL 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 -- 2
Ashcraft handcuffed St. Louis with 9 K over 7.0 IP and 1 ER, while Pittsburgh stacked a 4-run sequence across the 6th and 7th (Ozuna 2-RBI single, Davis solo HR, Reynolds RBI groundout) to bury a 4-ER, 5.1-IP outing from May. Herrera's 3rd-inning solo HR and Walker's 8th-inning RBI single were the only Cardinals offense. Series result: lost 2-of-3 to the Pirates at home.
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PREDICTION GRADES
CORRECT -- May walk control: May issued 2 BB in 5.1 IP. Threshold: under 3. 2 < 3.
CORRECT -- Ashcraft K total: Ashcraft struck out 9 over 7.0 IP. Threshold: 6+. 9 >= 6. WRONG -- Reynolds reaches base: Reynolds went 0-for-5 with 0 BB. Threshold: 2+ reaches. 0 < 2. WRONG -- Walker reaches base: Walker went 1-for-4 with 0 BB. Threshold: 2+ reaches. 1 < 2. CORRECT -- STL scores in innings 1-3: Cardinals plated 1 run in the 3rd. Threshold: 1+ runs. 1 >= 1. Hit rate: 3/5 (60%) | ||||||
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BOTTOM LINE
Edge: Paddack arrives 0-5 with a 7.07 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, and 6 HR allowed across 35.2 IP. The Cardinals' top four bats (Wetherholt .324/.928 RISP, Herrera .257/.858, Burleson .339/.899, Walker .286/.924) are exactly the lineup section that punishes traffic and mistakes from a struggling right-hander.
Threat: Nathaniel Lowe. A left-handed bat slotted into Cincinnati's DH spot who homered yesterday in St. Louis off the Cardinals' bullpen. Leahy's 1.55 WHIP and 9.8% BB% generate extra at-bats -- the conditions that turn a Lowe plate appearance into damage. Watch: Bullpen depth. Leahy has logged 45.2 IP across 9 starts, and last night's loss leaned on the relief group (Bruihl, Svanson, Pushard, Graceffo). Tonight's middle innings will likely fall to the same arms against a right-handed-heavy lineup (8 RHB, 4 LHB, 1 switch). | ||||||
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KEY MATCHUPS
Jordan Walker vs Chris Paddack. Walker's .286 AVG / .924 OPS in RISP situations meets a Paddack profile that has surrendered 6 HR in 35.2 IP. He is the cleanup bat built to punish a 7.07-ERA arm that keeps traffic on (1.63 WHIP).
Nathaniel Lowe vs Kyle Leahy. Lowe homered yesterday against the Cardinals' bullpen and brings the left-handed power Cincinnati's lineup needs. Leahy's 9.8% BB% and 1.55 WHIP point to extra at-bats for the Reds' middle order.
Wetherholt + Burleson vs Paddack. The top of the order is hot in RISP spots -- Wetherholt .324 / .928 OPS, Burleson .339 / .899. Paddack's 1.63 WHIP keeps the basepaths busy, exactly what those two need to convert.
X-factor. Leahy carries a 56.2% GB% on the season. If Cincinnati's right-handed lineup elevates against him at Great American Ball Park, his ground-ball formula breaks down.
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WATCHLIST
-- Leahy starter workload. 45.2 IP across 9 GS this season. Watch JoJo Romero and Matt Svanson in the high-leverage relief lanes once Leahy turns the lineup over.
-- Nathaniel Lowe at GABP. Homered yesterday in St. Louis off the Cardinals' bullpen. Left-handed pull power that travels.
-- Paddack first pass. 6 HR in 35.2 IP at a 7.07 ERA. The Cardinals' top four (Wetherholt .324, Herrera .257, Burleson .339, Walker .286 in RISP spots) get the highest-leverage looks early.
-- Cardinals' L2 streak. Coming off back-to-back home losses to Pittsburgh (0-7 and 2-6). First game of a 3-game road set is the first chance to reset.
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POSTPONED: Walker, Burleson and a 0-5 Paddack: The Cardinals' Test in Cincinnati
May 22, 2026
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2 min read