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TWO GAMES TODAY
Friday's series opener was postponed by rain. Today is a split doubleheader at Great American Ball Park -- Game 1 at 12:10 PM CT (Pallante vs Paddack) and Game 2 at 6:15 PM CT (Leahy vs Petty). The email below covers Game 1. Game 2 coverage is on the web.
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BOTTOM LINE
Edge: Paddack carries a 7.07 ERA into this afternoon's start and his second pass through the order is the weak spot -- 2025 TTO2 line of .283 AVG / .500 SLG / .813 OPS over 266 PA. Burleson (.296 vs RHP, .353 OBP) and Wetherholt (RISP slash line .324 / .457 / .471 in 2026) get the lefty looks against him.
Threat: Pallante's second pass through the order is his own cliff -- 2025 TTO2 line of .309 AVG / .487 SLG / .868 OPS, the highest OPS he allows in any TTO bucket. Lowe (3-for-9 vs Pallante career with 1 HR) and Steer (4-for-16 with 1 HR over 19 PA) are the two right men to fear when innings 4-6 arrive. Watch: Bullpen leverage when Pallante exits. Romero's 88.5% inherited-runner strand rate is the cleanest exit door; Svanson (50.0%) and Graceffo (54.5%) are not. Which arm gets the leverage call decides whether a TTO2 jam survives or scores. | ||||||
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KEY MATCHUPS
Nathaniel Lowe vs Pallante. 10 PA, 3-for-9 with 1 HR -- .333 / .400 / .667 in the career BvP sample. Lowe is the lone Reds bat hitting Pallante hard, and his 2025 vs RHP line (.251 / .331 / .425 over 444 PA) backs the matchup.
TJ Friedl vs Pallante. 24 PA, .174 / .208 / .174 -- the largest sample in the BvP table and Pallante's biggest individual edge. Friedl is hitting .268 with a .378 OBP vs RHP in 2025, so the Pallante mismatch stands out specifically.
Jordan Walker vs Paddack. Walker is .200 vs RHP in 2025 over 289 PA with a 31.8% K rate. Paddack's profile is FB-tilted (career 34.3% FB%, 25.5% LD%), and Walker's swing has not punished RHP velocity -- a watch spot when Paddack's TTO2 vulnerability appears.
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WATCHLIST
-- Pallante on the road and at GABP. Pallante's away split (4.89 ERA, 84.2 IP, 11 HR) is better than his home line (5.42 ERA, 78.0 IP, 10 HR), but a hitter-friendly Cincinnati park raises the FB-contact danger against a fly-ball lineup.
-- Reds fly-ball bats vs Pallante GB profile. Suarez 40.8% FB, Bleday 41.1% FB, McLain 35.8% FB, Steer 37.5% FB in 2025. Pallante's career 61.2% GB rate is his profile, but missed sinkers in this park land in the seats.
-- McLain on the bases. 18 SB / 2 CS in 2025, a 90% success rate against the season's typical defenses. Pagés logged 110 games behind the plate and posted a .994 fielding percentage; the throw is going to be tested if McLain reaches.
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Two games today. Pallante vs Paddack now, Leahy vs Petty tonight.
May 23, 2026
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2 min read