The TTO2 Window: Junk's .120-Point AVG Jump Is the Cardinals' Run-Scoring Door

MIA  1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 -- 3
STL  1 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 -- 5

Cardinals took the middle game 5-3 to even the series 1-1. Burleson 2-for-4 with 2 RBI; Church 2-for-4 with a 2-run HR (his 2nd) in the 4th; Wetherholt scored twice from the leadoff spot; Winn 2-for-4. May solid through 5.1 (6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 5 K) -- the only damage was the Marsee leadoff HR in the 1st. Stanek wobbled in the 8th (0.2 IP, 3 BB, 2 R) but the lead held.

PREDICTION GRADES

CORRECT -- May HR allowed: May allowed 1 HR (Marsee, 1st inning) in 5.1 IP. Threshold 1+. 1 >= 1.

WRONG -- Stowers reaches base: Stowers went 0-for-4 with 1 BB. 0 H + 1 BB = 1 reach. Needed 2+.

CORRECT -- Paddack strikeouts: Paddack recorded 7 K in 4.2 IP. Threshold 5+. 7 >= 5.

WRONG -- Edwards SB attempt: Edwards had 0 SB and 0 CS. SB+CS = 0. Needed 1+.

CORRECT -- Cardinals K total: Cards combined for 12 K (Wetherholt 2, Herrera 2, Burleson 1, Walker 2, Gorman 2, Pages 2, Scott 1). Threshold 8+. 12 >= 8.

Hit rate: 3/5 (60%)

BOTTOM LINE

Edge: Junk has reverse platoon splits (.753 OPS allowed vs LHB, .566 vs RHB) and the Cardinals project 3 LHB at the top -- Wetherholt, Burleson, and Scott. Burleson's .296 AVG vs RHP across 419 PA is the lineup's best lever against right-handed pitching.

Threat: Stowers has 24 HR in 356 PA vs RHP at .297/.377/.597 and Leahy is RHP. The lefty corner-power swing is the single hardest at-bat for Leahy to navigate.

Watch: Junk's TTO1 to TTO2 jump from .194 AVG / .505 OPS to .314 / .791 -- innings 3 through 5 are the highest-leverage scoring window for the Cards offense.

-- Herrera-Leahy battery (4 G, 3.0 IP, 6.00 ERA together). Thin shared history. First-pass sequencing and pop times to second base are uncertain.

-- Edwards on the bases. 27 career SB at 79.4% success against an unfamiliar Cards battery. Steal game tilts Miami.

-- Walker's 31.8% K rate. The cleanup spot is a strikeout hole if Junk gets ahead in counts.

-- Bullpen fork. Romero 88.5% strand rate vs Svanson 50.0%. Whoever inherits Leahy's runners decides the middle innings.

-- Junk at loanDepot. 4.50 home ERA vs 3.30 away. Pitching on his weaker side.