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YESTERDAY'S RESULT--SEA 3, STL 2
SEA 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 -- 3
STL 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 -- 2
Pallante kept the Cardinals in it -- 8 K over 5.1 IP -- but three walks and a 2-run, 4th-inning rally that died at the doorstep made the difference. Winn's 2-run single in the 4th plated both Cardinals runs (Walker, Gorman). Naylor's 6th-inning solo HR off Bruihl proved the decisive run. The Cardinals out-hit Seattle but stranded the tying run.
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PREDICTION GRADES
CORRECT -- Pallante walk trouble: Pallante issued 3 BB in 5.1 IP. Threshold: 3+. 3 >= 3.
WRONG -- Cardinals TTO3 scoring: Cardinals scored 0 runs in innings 6-9 (linescore: 0,0,0,0). Threshold: 2+. 0 < 2. WRONG -- Raleigh reaches base: Raleigh went 0-for-3 with 1 BB = 1 reach. Needed 2+. 1 < 2. WRONG -- Burleson reaches base: Burleson went 0-for-3 with 1 BB = 1 reach. Needed 2+. 1 < 2. WRONG -- Mariners SB attempts: Mariners totaled 1 SB (Naylor) and 0 CS = 1 attempt. Needed 2+. 1 < 2. Hit rate: 1/5 (20%) | ||||||
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BOTTOM LINE
Edge: Liberatore at home. His Busch ERA is 3.69 (75.2 IP) versus 4.03 on the road, and the Mariners ship five LHB into a lefty start. Naylor (.281 vs LHP) is the lone exception in that group; Crawford, Young, Canzone, and Raley combined .220 or worse vs LHP in 2025.
Threat: Bryan Woo, period. 2025 K/BB of 5.50 (27.1% K, 4.9% BB), 0.88 WHIP through 32 IP this year, and a 2.38 home / 3.20 away ERA across 2025. Burleson has the only Cardinals BvP HR off him (1-for-3, HR), but the rest of the projected lineup is 1-for-12 with five strikeouts. Watch: The Liberatore TTO2 trapdoor. His 2025 second-time-through line is .310/.360/.511 (.821 OPS) versus .613 OPS in TTO1 and .597 in TTO3. Innings 4-6 are when the Mariners' top three -- Raleigh, Arozarena, Naylor -- are most likely to inflict damage. Get him through the 5th and the bullpen mix decides it. | ||||||
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KEY MATCHUPS
Burleson vs Woo. 1-for-3 with a HR in the BvP sample (.333/.333/1.333). It's three plate appearances, but Burleson is also the lone Cardinals lefty bat with 2025 production (.296/.353/.478 vs RHP across 419 PA). If anyone breaks through against Woo, it starts here.
Naylor vs Liberatore. 2-for-8 with a HR in the BvP sample, and his 2025 vs-LHP line (.281/.322/.427) is by far the strongest of the Mariners' five lefty bats. He is also coming off yesterday's go-ahead solo HR. The lineup spot to game-plan around.
Raleigh's batted-ball tilt. 47.3% FB rate is extreme even for a power catcher; his 2025 vs-LHP line is .284/.350/.680 with 23 HR over 214 PA. Liberatore allowed a .426 SLG to RHB across 515 PA in 2025. Keep him in the yard.
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WATCHLIST
-- Liberatore TTO2 window (252 PA, 2025). .310/.360/.511 (.821 OPS) is the danger zone. Watch innings 4-6 closely; 9 of his 19 HR allowed in 2025 came in this bucket.
-- Battery uncertainty. The pitcher-catcher data shows Pages (15 G, 3.93 ERA) and Pozo (12 G, 4.10 ERA) as Liberatore's main 2026 partners; Pozo is the projected starter today. With Pages off the projected lineup, the receiver mix is in play.
-- Bullpen middle-inning fork. Romero strands 88.5% of inherited runners; Svanson 50.0%, Graceffo 54.5%, Fernandez 50.0%. If the high-leverage handoff goes to anyone but Romero with men on, the run-prevention math changes fast.
-- Mariners running game. Arozarena 31 SB / 83.8%, Naylor 30 SB / 93.8%, Rodriguez 30 SB / 83.3%, Raleigh 14 SB / 77.8% (all 2025). Pozo's catcher-arm sample is short; pitchers must hold runners.
-- Walker contact gate. 31.8% K rate in 2025 vs Woo's 27.1% K rate. Walker has not solved RHP (.200/.263/.291); the cleanup spot could be a rally-killer if Woo is on.
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The TTO2 Trapdoor: Liberatore's .821 Window vs Seattle's Top Three
Apr 25, 2026
•
5 min read