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YESTERDAY'S RESULT -- STL 3, CHC 0
STL 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 -- 3
CHC 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -- 0
Wetherholt led off with a solo HR (his 13th) and went 3-for-4. Herrera plated Church with a 3rd-inning single; Burleson knocked in Walker in the 8th. Leahy started and threw 5.0 shutout innings with 6 K on 2 BB, and the bullpen (Soriano, Stanek, Romero, O'Brien) covered the last 4 innings without a run. Cardinals take a 2-0 series lead into today's finale.
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PREDICTION GRADES
WRONG -- Winn reaches base: Winn went 0-for-4 with 0 BB. 0 reaches, needed 2+.
WRONG -- Busch reaches base: Busch went 0-for-4 with 0 BB. 0 reaches, needed 2+. WRONG -- STL innings 1-3 scoring: Cardinals scored 1 in the 1st and 1 in the 3rd. 2 runs, needed 3+. CORRECT -- Leahy strikeouts: Leahy recorded 6 K in 5.0 IP. Threshold 5+; 6 >= 5. WRONG -- Herrera reaches base: Herrera went 1-for-3 with 0 BB. 1 reach, needed 2+. Hit rate: 1/5 (20%) | ||||||
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BOTTOM LINE
Edge: Assad is a different pitcher against left-handed bats -- .293/.339/.552 (.891 OPS) vs LHB, .205/.308/.256 (.564 OPS) vs RHB. Six of the nine Cardinals in today's projection swing left. Wetherholt sets the table from the leadoff spot after a 3-hit HR game yesterday.
Threat: Michael Busch is 2-for-5 with a HR against Liberatore in a small career sample (.400/.400/1.200), and Liberatore's vs-LHB line (.274/.348/.410) does not scare the Busch/Conforto/Crow-Armstrong left-handed trio. If Liberatore lets a lefty extend an at-bat this afternoon, it can leave the yard. Watch: Liberatore's second pass through the order is where he gets hurt -- 2025 TTO2 line of .310/.360/.511 (.871 OPS) vs a .657 TTO1 OPS. Innings 4-6 are the pressure window. Note also that Assad at Wrigley carries a 1.59 career home ERA vs 4.50 on the road -- his home comfort is real. | ||||||
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KEY MATCHUPS
JJ Wetherholt vs Assad. No career sample -- Wetherholt is a rookie leadoff bat. What matters is the profile fit: Wetherholt is left-handed, and Assad's 2025 vs-LHB line is .293/.339/.552. Wetherholt is coming off a 3-hit HR day, hitting from the top of the order into a starter whose weakness is his side.
Masyn Winn vs Assad. 5-for-5 with a HR in a 6-PA career look (1.000/1.000/1.600). The sample is tiny and cannot carry the analysis on its own, but Winn hitting sixth after five lefties is a real hinge -- the RHB at the bottom of the order breaks Assad's platoon comfort.
Michael Busch vs Liberatore. 2-for-5 career with a HR (.400/.400/1.200). Add Liberatore's 2025 vs-LHB slash of .274/.348/.410, and Busch is the Cubs bat with the clearest path to extra bases this afternoon.
Liberatore TTO2 window. His 2025 second pass through the order (.310/.360/.511, .871 OPS) is a full ~200 OPS points worse than TTO1 (.657) and TTO3 (.641). Innings 4-6 are when the Cubs get their look -- and where the game is likely decided.
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WATCHLIST
-- Fresh battery: Liberatore + Crooks. The battery table shows Liberatore has paired mostly with Pedro Pagés (15 G, 75.2 IP) and Yohel Pozo (12 G, 63.2 IP) this season. Jimmy Crooks is the projected starter today with only 2 G / 11.0 IP alongside Liberatore. Watch early-count sequencing and any cross-up risk in the first pass.
-- Pete Crow-Armstrong on the bases. 35 SB and 81.4% success in the baserunning table. Cardinals catchers this year have caught PCA off once already yesterday (CS in the box score). The Liberatore/Crooks debut battery makes another PCA challenge attempt likely.
-- Cardinals contact quality: 2025 BB%. Discipline is a mixed bag against a control arm like Assad (2025 BB% 7.8). Nootbaar 11.0% BB% is the plate-patience anchor; Herrera 9.6%; Burleson 7.2%. Below that, Winn (6.3%), Walker (7.3%), Church (4.6%), Crooks (0.0%) -- the bottom of the order will not walk into rallies.
-- Assad's third time through. His 2025 third pass through the order is .308/.412/.462 (.874 OPS) on a 17-PA sample -- small, but paired with a career workload only 51.2 IP deep in 2026, expect the Cubs bullpen to be quick. Watch for a lefty-heavy Cubs relief look against the Cardinals' left-handed core.
-- JoJo Romero vs Matt Svanson in leverage. Romero: 88.5% strand rate on 26 inherited runners. Svanson: 50.0% on 26. If the Cardinals need to bridge from Liberatore's TTO2 wobble to Riley O'Brien's 9th, which arm gets the runners on base decides the middle innings.
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Six Lefties vs. Assad's 1.59 Home ERA -- Can STL Sweep at Wrigley?
Jul 5, 2026
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3 min read