| ||||||
|
YESTERDAY'S RESULT -- CHC 6, STL 4
STL 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 1 0 -- 4
CHC 2 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 -- 6
Cardinals lost the series finale in Chicago but still took the set 2-of-3. Jordan Walker's 3-run HR (his 20th) in the top of the 6th briefly gave St. Louis a 3-2 lead, but the Cubs answered with a 4-run bottom half -- Hoerner's 2-RBI single, a Fermin throwing error, and a Ramirez sacrifice fly did the damage. Liberatore went 5.0 IP (3 ER, 2 BB, 3 K). Wetherholt (2-for-4, 2 R) and Burleson (2-for-4) were the offensive bright spots.
| ||||||
|
PREDICTION GRADES
CORRECT -- Wetherholt reaches base: 2 H + 0 BB = 2 reaches. Threshold 2+. 2 >= 2.
WRONG -- Busch reaches base: 1 H + 0 BB = 1 reach. Threshold 2+. 1 < 2. CORRECT -- CHC innings 4-6 scoring: linescore innings 4-6 = 0 + 0 + 4 = 4 runs. Threshold 2+. 4 >= 2. WRONG -- Liberatore walk trouble: Liberatore issued 2 BB in 5.0 IP. Threshold 3+. 2 < 3. CORRECT -- Cardinals total runs: Cardinals scored 4 runs. Threshold 3+. 4 >= 3. Hit rate: 3/5 (60%) | ||||||
|
BOTTOM LINE
Edge: May at Busch is a different pitcher. His 2025 home ERA is 3.24 in 75.0 IP versus 6.28 in 57.1 IP on the road -- home is clearly his stronger context. Tonight lands in the favorable half of that split.
Threat: Drohan (L) walks into a Cardinals lineup with 6 LHB. Nootbaar's .201 AVG vs LHP in 180 PA (2025) is the primary exposure point; Wetherholt has no 2025 vs LHP sample on file. Iván Herrera (R) is the counter-weight -- .330 / .455 / .660 in 124 PA vs LHP with 9 HR. Watch: May's second pass through the order. 2025 TTO1 line is a .652 OPS; TTO2 jumps to a .878 OPS -- innings 4-6 are where the line thickens, and Milwaukee's patient bats (Contreras 12.7% BB%, Bauers 14.7%) are built to grind toward that window. | ||||||
|
KEY MATCHUPS
Herrera vs Drohan. With six LHB projected around him, Herrera (R) is the one Cardinals bat with a proven LHP profile -- .330 / .455 / .660 in 124 PA vs LHP in 2025, 9 HR. He also owns a strong 12.7 K% (18 K, 124 PA) against left-handed pitching relative to his overall 18.7% 2025 K%.
May vs Yelich. Yelich is .271 / .356 / .493 vs RHP in 461 PA in 2025 with 25 HR. May's vs-LHB line is .261 / .357 / .495 with 15 HR allowed (.852 OPS). A mirror-image slugging-lefty vs slugging-vulnerable-righty spot -- Yelich is the Brewers' primary offensive path against May.
Bullpen fork. Romero (88.5% IR strand in 2025, 26 IR) sits opposite Svanson (50.0%, 26 IR) at the extremes of the Cardinals' strand-rate distribution. Which arm enters with runners on decides the middle innings; league average is roughly 68-72%.
| ||||||
|
WATCHLIST
-- Nootbaar vs LHP. .201 AVG vs LHP in 180 PA (2025). The 5-hole is the platoon-disadvantage seat tonight.
-- Wetherholt vs LHP sample. No 2025 vs LHP sample on file for Wetherholt -- profile unknown at the top of the order.
-- May's second pass through the order. 2025 OPS-against jumps from .652 (first pass) to .878 (second pass). Innings 4-6 are the exit ramp.
-- Brewers running game. Turang (24 SB), Hamilton (22), Chourio (21), and Frelick (19) are all above 75% success in 2025. Crooks catches a fresh battery -- expect tests.
-- Contact discipline (BB%). Contreras 12.7% and Bauers 14.7% are the walk-rate leaders in the Brewers pool (2025); Chourio 5.1% and Ortiz 5.3% are the low-walk anchors -- attack-zone vs patient-zone approaches will fork by hitter.
|
Six Lefties Meet Drohan: Herrera's .330 vs LHP Is the Cardinals' Escape Hatch
Jul 6, 2026
•
2 min read