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YESTERDAY'S RESULT -- STL 13, NYY 7
STL 2 1 1 2 0 0 0 7 0 -- 13
NYY 0 0 0 0 3 0 4 0 0 -- 7
Alec Burleson hit 3 home runs (Nos. 16, 17, 18) and drove in 6 in a 3-for-5 effort. Nathan Church drove in 4 -- including a 3-run homer in the 8th inning (No. 9) with Blaze Jordan and Masyn Winn on base -- and Jimmy Crooks hit a 2-run shot (No. 4) in the same frame. The Cardinals scored 7 runs in the 8th to rally from a 7-6 deficit, as the Yankees had briefly seized the lead thanks to a 4-run 7th. Michael McGreevy started and allowed 2 ER in 4.1 innings; the middle relief trio of Bruihl, Stanek, and Soriano combined for 5 ER in 2.2 IP before Gordon Graceffo closed with 2.0 hitless innings.
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THE BREAKDOWN
WHAT WORKED
• Alec Burleson: 3-for-5 with 3 HR (Nos. 16, 17, 18) and 6 RBI -- the engine of a 13-run night • Nathan Church: 2-for-3 with 2 BB, a 3-run homer (No. 9), and 4 RBI on the night • 8th-inning explosion: home runs from Church (3 RBI), Crooks (2 RBI), and Burleson (2 RBI) produced 7 runs in the frame -- 6 of them charged to Angel Chivilli -- erasing a 7-6 deficit • Gordon Graceffo: 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H to close after the middle bullpen unraveled WHAT DIDN'T • Middle relief in the 7th: Ryne Stanek allowed 3 ER in 0.1 IP (2 HR); George Soriano gave up 1 ER in 0.2 IP (1 HR) -- a 4-run inning that flipped the lead and sent the Cardinals to the 8th trailing 7-6 • Masyn Winn: 0-for-4 with 3 strikeouts | ||||||
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BOTTOM LINE
STL leads this series 1-0 tonight and sends Hunter Dobbins (R, 3.74 ERA, 33.2 IP, 2-1) against Ryan Weathers (L, 3.99 ERA, 115.0 IP, 4-7). The central analytical story is Weathers's times-through-order profile. In 2025, his second-pass OPS was .880 across 69 PA -- the most exploitable split on his card. In 2026, that same window reads .622 OPS across 184 BF -- now his best current split. Any gameplan that waits for the second pass to attack Weathers is working off outdated information.
The Cardinals carry at least 5 left-handed bats against the lefty, but Weathers is holding LHB to .725 OPS in 111 BF this season. The primary offensive upside tonight is with the right-handed hitters at the top of the order: Jordan Walker posts a .913 OPS vs LHP in 2026 (123 PA) and Ivan Herrera .804 OPS vs LHP (149 PA). Dobbins makes his fifth start of 2026 with a road test ahead; his 2025 away ERA of 4.70 (23.0 IP) is the relevant baseline, as his 14.2 IP away this season falls below the sample floor. | ||||||
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KEY MATCHUPS
Walker and Herrera vs. Weathers (LHP). Jordan Walker's 2026 vs-LHP line is .913 OPS (123 PA) and Ivan Herrera's is .804 OPS (149 PA) -- the two right-handed bats best positioned to exploit the platoon against tonight's left-handed starter. Herrera also has 1 career HR in 3 PA vs Weathers. Ben Rice vs. Dobbins (RHP). Rice (LHB) carries a .971 OPS vs right-handed pitching in 2026 (299 PA), the highest-danger bat in the NYY pool for tonight's Cardinals starter. His 2025 vs-RHP baseline was .269/.356/.504 in 411 PA -- the 2026 number represents a significant step up. Dobbins on the road. His 2025 away ERA was 4.70 across 23.0 IP (98 BF), compared to a 2.61 ERA at home (38.0 IP). Tonight at Yankee Stadium is his road start context; the 2026 road sample at 14.2 IP falls below the 20-IP floor for seasonal comparison. | ||||||
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WATCHLIST
Weathers's TTO2 adaptation. His former worst split -- a .880 OPS second pass in 2025 (69 PA) -- has become his best current split in 2026. Waiting for a 5th-6th-inning rally that may not come the way it used to is the primary trap tonight.
Crooks behind the plate. Tonight's battery is Dobbins-Crooks. Jimmy Crooks (14 career games at catcher, 1.000 fielding percentage in 2025) will face active base stealers: Jose Caballero (49 SB, 81.7% success in 2025) and Jazz Chisholm (31 SB, 79.5%) are the primary threats. Winn vs. LHP recovery. Masyn Winn was 0-for-4 with 3 K last night. Against lefties in 2026 he is hitting .287 with a .730 OPS (109 PA) -- a clear step up from his .255/.313/.349 line in 2025 (163 PA). Tonight's leadoff matchup against Weathers tests whether that season-long progress absorbs one bad night. | ||||||
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TREND WATCH
Kyle Leahy -- career-best 91 strikeouts. Leahy has set a new personal season high with 91 strikeouts in 2026, surpassing his previous best of 80 (2025). His workload at 107.1 innings on the year has been the most durable backbone of the Cardinals rotation depth.
Michael McGreevy -- career-best 81 strikeouts. McGreevy has 81 strikeouts in 2026, a new career best that clears his prior mark of 58 (2025) -- even as a 15.88 ERA over his last three starts has raised questions about whether the counting milestone reflects his current form. Andre Pallante -- career-best 11 wins. Pallante's 11 wins in 2026 represent a new career high, surpassing his previous best of 8 (2024). He is on pace for 16 wins by season's end -- a total that would clear the 15-win threshold and rank among the stronger Cardinals starting-pitcher seasons in recent memory. | ||||||
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editorial direction: operator-supplied |
Ryan Weathers Has Flipped His Second-Time-Through Weakness — Cardinals Hunt a New Edge at Yankee Stadium
Aug 4, 2026
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3 min read