Riley Is 2-for-7 Career Against May. Both Hits Over the Fence.

ATL  0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 -- 1
STL  3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -- 4

Lars Nootbaar's 3-run homer in the bottom of the 1st off Reynaldo Lopez staked STL to an early lead scoring Ivan Herrera and Jordan Walker; Blaze Jordan drove in the fourth run with an RBI single in the 4th plating Nootbaar. Matthew Liberatore held Atlanta scoreless across 6.0 IP (4 H, 1 BB, 6 K). Mauricio Dubon's solo shot off Luis Gastelum in the 7th was the only Braves damage. Soriano and O'Brien closed out the final two innings. Cardinals lead the series 2-0 with a chance to sweep this afternoon.

PREDICTION GRADES

CORRECT -- Baldwin reaches base: Drake Baldwin went 1-for-3 with 1 BB; 2 reaches. Threshold: 2+. 2 >= 2.

WRONG -- Liberatore walks: Matthew Liberatore issued 1 BB across 6.0 IP. Threshold: 3+. 1 < 3.

INCONCLUSIVE -- Yastrzemski strikeouts: Mike Yastrzemski did not appear in the ATL lineup; prediction rolled over from a prior report.

WRONG -- Burleson hit: Alec Burleson went 0-for-4. Threshold: 1+. 0 < 1.

WRONG -- Braves TTO2 scoring: Braves scored 0 runs in innings 4-6 (linescore 0-0-0). Threshold: 2+. 0 < 2.

Hit rate: 1/4 (25%) -- inconclusive predictions excluded from denominator.

BOTTOM LINE

Edge: May at home is a decisive context -- 3.24 career ERA at home in 75.0 IP vs 6.28 on the road in 57.1 IP. Busch is his best setting, and STL leads the series 2-0 with a chance to sweep this afternoon. Ritchie's 14.0% 2026 BB% is well above the ~9% league benchmark, and STL's disciplined LHB stack (Burleson 7.2% 2025 BB%, Nootbaar 11.0% 2025 BB%, Herrera 9.6% 2025 BB%) is built to tax that command.

Threat: Austin Riley is 2-for-7 career against May with both hits over the fence (.286/.286/1.143, 2 HR) -- the biggest single-batter power flag on the card. Dominic Smith is 1-for-3 with an HR and 2 BB (.333/.600/1.333 in 5 PA), the second BvP power flag. May's counterweight: Olson (0-for-8, 5 K) and Albies (0-for-8, 4 K) combine for 0-for-16 with 9 K in the career sample. Elevated pitch selection has to start with Riley and Smith.

Watch: May's second and third pass through the order. TTO2 OPS climbs to .878 (220 PA, 9 HR); TTO3 sits at .882 (137 PA). Innings 4-6 are the leverage window. If Cardinals have to bridge, Romero (88.5% strand) and O'Brien (70.0%) are the reliable arms; Svanson (50.0%) and Graceffo (54.5%) are the volatile ones against a ~68-72% league average.

-- May TTO2/TTO3 cliff (220 PA / 137 PA). Second pass jumps to .290/.370/.508/.878; third pass sits at .263/.365/.517/.882. Innings 4-6 are the leverage window.

-- May-Crooks battery (fresh pairing). Today's projected catcher is Jimmy Crooks with 0 shared career IP with May. May's battery history is Dodgers and Red Sox era catchers -- the pairing is functionally new at the big-league sample level.

-- Braves speed on Crooks. Harris 20 SB, 76.9%. Mateo 15 SB, 88.2%. Albies 14 SB, 82.4%. White 10 SB, 90.9%. A live running game against a rookie catcher's pop times.

-- Braves plate contact split. Contact-heavy 2025 K%: Dubon 10.6%, Albies 14.1%, Baldwin 15.2%. Whiff-prone 2025 K%: Mateo 36.1%, Riley 28.6%, Bart 28.0%. Sequence around the low-K bats.