Pfaadt's 7.60 Away ERA at Busch: McGreevy's Home Split Is the Catch

STL  0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 -- 1
LAA  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -- 0

Wetherholt's solo HR (15) in the 6th was the Cardinals' lone run -- and all they needed. Hunter Dobbins dominated: 6.0 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 K. Gastelum, Soriano, and O'Brien each worked a clean inning in relief to close it out. Cardinals took the finale but lost the LAA series 1-of-3.

PREDICTION GRADES

WRONG -- Jordan Walker 2+ reaches: Walker went 0-for-4 with 0 BB (0 H + 0 BB = 0 reaches). Threshold was 2+.

CORRECT -- Cardinals 9+ strikeouts: Cardinals combined for 10 K (Herrera 2, Walker 2, Burleson 1, Velazquez 1, Winn 1, Fermin 1, Jordan 1, Crooks 1). 10 >= 9.

WRONG -- Dobbins 3+ walks: Dobbins issued 0 BB in 6.0 IP. 0 < 3.

WRONG -- Jose Siri 2+ reaches: Siri had 0 H and 0 BB (0 AB, 0 BB listed). 0 reaches vs. threshold 2+.

CORRECT -- Cardinals 1+ runs in innings 4-6: Wetherholt's solo HR in the 6th scored 1 run in that window. 1 >= 1.

Hit rate: 2/5 (40%)

BOTTOM LINE

EDGE: Pfaadt's away ERA is 7.60 (79.1 IP, 363 BF, 22 HR allowed on the road) vs. 2.96 at home (97.1 IP, 404 BF, 4 HR). This afternoon at Busch Stadium the Cardinals face the road version of Pfaadt -- his most vulnerable environment. That split is not a small-sample artifact: he has faced hundreds of batters in each context.

THREAT: McGreevy's home ERA of 5.22 is a real liability. ARI's lineup carries three left-handed bats -- Carroll, Castillo, and Kepler -- and McGreevy allows .318 AVG and .911 OPS to left-handed batters in 2025. Carroll hit .265/.351/.566 vs RHP last season with 23 HR. The Cardinals' own lineup is heavy on left-handed bats (6 LHB), which cuts against their ability to exploit Pfaadt's weaker LHB splits (.775 OPS) compared to RHBs (.811 OPS).

WATCH: Pfaadt's third-pass-through-the-order window. In 2025 his TTO3 line was .276 AVG, .547 SLG, .866 OPS with 11 HR in 182 PA -- a sharp spike from the second pass (.749 OPS). If Pfaadt is still on the mound when the Cardinals cycle through the lineup a third time this afternoon, that is when the offense gets its best opportunity.

-- McGreevy home ERA (5.22). His 2025 home ERA of 5.22 (50.0 IP, 212 BF) vs. road ERA of 3.55 (45.2 IP, 188 BF) places him in the weaker context today. ARI's left-handed bats (Carroll, Castillo, Kepler) target his primary weakness: .318 AVG and .911 OPS allowed to LHB in 2025.

-- ARI speed game. Carroll (32 SB, 84.2% success rate) and Perdomo (27 SB, 81.8% success rate) are active baserunning threats. Today's battery is McGreevy-Crooks -- only 2 career games together (8.2 IP). An unfamiliar receiver historically gives the aggressive baserunner a timing advantage in the early innings.

-- Pfaadt TTO3 window (.866 OPS). In 2025, Pfaadt's third-pass-through-the-order line was .276 AVG, .547 SLG, .866 OPS, 11 HR in 182 PA. If he extends into the 7th inning this afternoon, the Cardinals offense reaches its best opportunity of the game regardless of what happened in the first six.