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YESTERDAY'S RESULT -- MIL 6, STL 0
STL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -- 0
MIL 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 0 -- 6
Cardinals scattered seven hits but never crossed the plate. Kyle Harrison was the difference for Milwaukee: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K. Milwaukee broke it open in innings 4-5 -- Jake Bauers homered to lead off the fourth, then William Contreras's 2-run double and Garrett Mitchell's 3-run homer turned a 1-0 game into a 6-0 lead. Michael McGreevy took the loss after 4.0 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 3 BB.
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PREDICTION GRADES
WRONG -- Harrison K total: Harrison struck out 2 in 6.0 IP. Threshold: 7+. 2 < 7.
WRONG -- Cardinals K total: Cardinals batters combined for 5 K (Wetherholt 1 + Herrera 1 + Burleson 1 + Winn 2). Threshold: 9+. 5 < 9. WRONG -- McGreevy walk control: McGreevy issued 3 BB in 4.0 IP. Threshold: 2 or fewer. 3 > 2. CORRECT -- Yelich reaches base: Yelich went 3-for-5 with 0 BB = 3 reaches. Threshold: 2+. 3 >= 2. CORRECT -- MIL run total: Brewers scored 6 runs. Threshold: 3+. 6 >= 3. Hit rate: 2/5 (40%) | ||||||
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BOTTOM LINE
Edge: Patrick's command profile. The 2.63 ERA looks pristine, but the 2026 rate stats tell a different story: 17.6% K% (below the league average 22.1%), 10.3% BB% (above the league average 9.3%), and 39.1% GB% (below the league average 47.5%). The walks are there if the Cardinals stay patient.
Threat: The Brewers' RISP machine vs May's 5.00 ERA. Four of Milwaukee's projected bats sit above .950 in 2026 RISP OPS: Turang (1.102, 59 PA), Bauers (1.094, 59 PA), Mitchell (1.081, 53 PA), Contreras (.956, 66 PA). May has allowed 60 H and 5 HR in 54.0 IP with a 1.43 WHIP. Traffic feeds runs. Watch: The handoff window. May (5.00 ERA, 1.43 WHIP across 10 starts) and the Brewers bullpen sit behind two starters whose game-to-game length has varied. Cardinals' best chances arrive against relief sequences -- lose the middle innings and the series is gone. | ||||||
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KEY MATCHUPS
Walker vs Patrick. Walker carries the lineup's best 2026 RISP profile (.302 / 1.011 OPS, 74 PA) and is the four-hole right-handed power threat. Patrick has surrendered only 2 HR in 41.0 IP, but a 10.3% BB% means the cleanup at-bats arrive with men on base.
Wetherholt vs Patrick. Cardinals leadoff with a .316 / .887 RISP line (50 PA). The top-of-order at-bats set the tone -- if Patrick walks Wetherholt, Herrera (.781 RISP OPS) and Burleson (.869 RISP OPS) follow.
May vs the Brewers' RISP core. Turang (1.102), Bauers (1.094), Mitchell (1.081), Contreras (.956) -- the cluster that combined for all six runs yesterday now sees a 5.00 ERA right-hander. Yelich (.819) and Hamilton (.964) round out the danger.
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WATCHLIST
-- Patrick walk rate. 10.3% BB% across 41.0 IP. League average is 9.3%. The Cardinals must turn baserunners into runs -- Walker (1.011 RISP OPS) is the bat to bring up with men on.
-- Brewers RISP cluster. Four bats above .950 RISP OPS: Turang 1.102, Bauers 1.094, Mitchell 1.081, Contreras .956. May's 1.43 WHIP feeds the situation.
-- Cardinals offense vs RHP. Lineup is 5 RHB / 4 LHB against right-hander Patrick. The right-handed core -- Herrera, Walker, Winn, Saggese, Pagés -- carries the platoon edge this afternoon.
-- Series stakes. MIL leads 2-0 in a 3-game set with the Cardinals on a 3-game losing streak. A win today is sweep-avoidance.
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Patrick Walks 10.3 Percent. Cardinals' Sweep Avoidance Starts There.
May 27, 2026
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2 min read