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YESTERDAY'S RESULT--LAD 4, STL 1
LAD 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 -- 4
STL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -- 1
Cardinals dropped the finale 4-1 but still took the series 2-of-3 from the Dodgers. Justin Wrobleski silenced the bats over 6.0 scoreless. Andy Pages doubled in Tucker and Hyeseong Kim singled in Muncy in a two-run 2nd off May (6.0 IP, 3 ER). Burleson singled in Walker for the Cardinals' lone run in the 8th.
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PREDICTION GRADES
WRONG -- Pages reaches base: Pedro Pages went 0-for-4 with 0 BB. 0 reaches; threshold was 2+.
WRONG -- Tucker reaches base: Kyle Tucker went 1-for-5 with 0 BB. 1 reach; threshold was 2+. WRONG -- LAD TTO2 scoring vs May: Innings 4-6 line was 0+1+0 = 1 run. Threshold was 2+. WRONG -- STL K total: Cardinals batters combined for 2 K (Fermin 1, Pages 1). Threshold was 8+. WRONG -- Wrobleski walk total: Wrobleski issued 1 BB across 6.0 IP. Threshold was 2+. Hit rate: 0/5 (0%) | ||||||
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BOTTOM LINE
Edge: Patrick's third-pass cliff. His 2025 TTO line goes from .625 OPS first pass to .530 second pass to .855 third pass (.290/.347/.565 over 75 PA). Innings 7+ is where the Cardinals get their best swings tonight.
Threat: Brewers team speed. Turang 24 SB on 75% success, Hamilton 22 on 78.6%, Frelick 19 on 76%, Lockridge 90.9% on 11 attempts, Ortiz 82.4%. Pages catches; that is one of the busiest tag situations the Cardinals will see this homestand. Watch: Leahy at home. 4.47 home ERA versus 2.68 on the road -- a meaningful Busch discount. Add a Brewers lineup that runs out 6 LHB, and Leahy's vs-LHB line (.252/.337 OBP, .616 OPS) is the lever. | ||||||
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KEY MATCHUPS
Burleson vs Patrick. Burleson 2025 vs RHP: .296/.353/.478 with 15 HR (419 PA) -- the lineup's best stick against right-handers. Career BvP off Patrick: 2-for-2 (small sample). 2026 RISP slash: .381/.426/.619/1.045.
Contreras vs Leahy. Brewers' top RHB at .263/.349/.409 vs RHP in 2025; 12.7% BB% leads the regulars. Career off Leahy: 1-for-4 with a walk (.250/.400). Leahy's vs-RHB line is .238/.270/.319 (.557 OPS) -- the spot to neutralize him.
Turang vs Pages-Leahy battery. Turang's 24 SB on 75% success against a Leahy who runs a 44.2% career GB rate sets up first-pitch jumps. Pages has logged 110 G at .994 fielding behind the plate.
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WATCHLIST
-- Patrick TTO3 cliff. .855 OPS allowed third pass through the order in 2025 (75 PA). Innings 7+ is where Cardinals can press.
-- Leahy first-pass profile. 355 PA TTO1 sample at .247/.304/.341 (.588 OPS) -- comfortable on the first pass, only 8 PA logged in TTO2.
-- Brewers running game. Six MIL hitters with 10+ SB; Lockridge 90.9% on 11 attempts is the success-rate flag. Pages-Leahy has the longest battery sample to set the counter.
-- STL lefty bats vs Patrick. Patrick vs LHB in 2025: .261/.337/.396. Cardinals run out 5 LHB; Burleson, Gorman, Wetherholt are the lefty engine.
-- Romero leverage spot. Romero 88.5% IR strand percentage in 2025 (3 of 26 IR scored) -- tonight's late-inning crunch arm. Svanson 50.0% and Graceffo 54.5% are the avoid-with-runners flags.
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Patrick's TTO3 Cliff and Leahy at Home: How the Middle Innings Decide Cardinals-Brewers
May 4, 2026
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5 min read