Ozuna Is 5-for-8 With a Homer Off Dustin May

SEA  0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 -- 3
STL  0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 -- 2

Cardinals were swept 0-3 by Seattle. Wetherholt homered in the 3rd and Church homered in the 6th to build a 2-1 lead, but Refsnyder's pinch-hit solo shot off Romero in the 9th flipped a 2-2 tie. McGreevy was the key performer despite the loss: 6.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K. The bullpen surrendered 2 ER on 3 H over the final 3 innings.

PREDICTION GRADES

WRONG -- Mariners LHB damage: Naylor did not appear in the SEA box score; the four named LHB who did (Crawford, Canzone, Young, Raley) combined 0+1+2+0 = 3 H. Threshold 4+. 3 < 4.

WRONG -- McGreevy innings: McGreevy threw exactly 6.0 IP. Threshold was fewer than 6. 6.0 is not < 6.

WRONG -- Mariners SB attempts: SEA combined for 0 SB and 0 CS across the box score. Threshold 2+ attempts. 0 < 2.

WRONG -- Walker strikeouts: Walker had 0 K (2 AB, 1 H, 2 BB). Threshold 2+. 0 < 2.

WRONG -- Burleson reaches base: Burleson went 0-for-4 with 0 BB. H + BB = 0. Threshold 2+. 0 < 2.

Hit rate: 0/5 (0%)

BOTTOM LINE

Edge: Montgomery's reverse split is the pressure point. RHB hit .321 / .409 / .505 against him in 209 PA (2025), with a 12.9% BB% pumping free baserunners on top. The projected Cardinals lineup runs six RHB (Herrera, Walker, Urias, Winn, Pozo, Saggese) versus three LHB -- the platoon math leans hard the right way.

Threat: Marcell Ozuna owns Dustin May. 11 PA / 8 AB / 5 H / 1 HR -- .625 / .727 / 1.125. He's the only Pittsburgh bat with a double-digit BvP sample, and May's career road ERA is 6.28 (57.1 IP) versus 3.24 at home. Unfavorable venue plus the only proven nemesis equals the headline danger.

Watch: May's TTO2 spike. May's 2025 OPS allowed jumps from .573 (TTO1) to .798 (TTO2) -- a +.225 swing that opens the middle innings. With Ozuna and Cruz (88.4% career SB rate, 38-for-43) seeing him a second time, innings 4-6 are the leverage window.

-- Cruz on the bases. 38 SB / 5 CS career = 88.4% success. Tonight is a fresh battery: every catcher in May's pairing data (Smith, Rushing, Narvaez, Barnes, Wong) is from his Dodgers tenure. Tonight's catcher is Ivan Herrera with 0 IP paired with May in this dataset.

-- May's road profile. Career split: 6.28 ERA away (57.1 IP) vs 3.24 at home (75.0 IP). Tonight is at PNC -- the worse half of the split.

-- Bullpen leverage. Romero 88.5% IR strand (17 entries, 26 IR) is the high-leverage arm; Svanson 50.0% (15 entries) is the soft spot. Whichever enters with runners on shapes the middle.

-- Lineup uncertainty. Cardinals lineup is projected from 2026-04-26; Pirates lineup is roster-only (13 players, 9 will play). Order may shift before first pitch.