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YESTERDAY'S RESULT -- STL 6, CIN 5
CIN 0 0 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 -- 5
STL 0 3 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 -- 6
Cardinals took the second straight from Cincinnati 6-5 behind Lars Nootbaar's two-run pinch homer in the eighth that flipped the score. Liberatore lasted only 4.1 IP and surrendered all five Reds runs (a three-spot in the third capped by a Burleson fielding error, then a McLain two-run shot in the fourth), but the bullpen -- Graceffo, Stanek, Soriano, O'Brien -- delivered 4.2 scoreless to keep it within reach. Jose Fermin's 3-for-4 night and a Walker solo HR did the early lifting; Winn's two-RBI single in the second was the first big sequence.
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PREDICTION GRADES
CORRECT -- Liberatore TTO2 scoring: Reds plated 2 runs in innings 4-6 (McLain 2-run HR in the 4th). Threshold: 2+. 2 >= 2.
CORRECT -- Suarez K trouble: Suarez recorded 2 K in 4 AB. Threshold: 2+. 2 >= 2. WRONG -- Lodolo strikeouts: Lodolo recorded 3 K in 5.0 IP. Threshold: 6+. 3 < 6. CORRECT -- Burleson reaches base: Burleson finished 1 H + 1 BB = 2 reaches. Threshold: 2+. 2 >= 2. WRONG -- CIN K total: Cincinnati batters combined for 6 K (Stewart 2, Suarez 2, Marte 1, Lowe 1). Threshold: 8+. 6 < 8. Hit rate: 3/5 (60%) | ||||||
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BOTTOM LINE
Edge: McGreevy carries a stingy right-handed batter profile (.225 AVG / .580 OPS allowed vs RHB in his platoon line) into a Cincinnati roster pool that lists 9 right-handed bats. Even with Suarez and Marte slugging vs RHP in 2025, the matchup leans STL.
Threat: Eugenio Suarez. .247 / .311 / .546 with 39 HR vs RHP in his 2025 sample. McGreevy's RHB profile bends when the bat is this big, and Suarez's 40.8% fly-ball rate is built for a Busch mistake. Watch: McGreevy at Busch. He has worked to a 5.22 ERA at home this year against a 3.55 mark on the road -- a substantial home/road gap, road clearly his stronger context. The first pass through the order is the loudest part of his line (.282 AVG / .465 SLG allowed in 2025 TTO1) -- that is where innings 1-3 get tested. | ||||||
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KEY MATCHUPS
Eugenio Suarez vs Michael McGreevy. Career BvP is a 2-PA blip (0-for-2, 1 K) -- the bet here is profile, not history. Suarez has 39 HR and a .546 SLG vs RHP in the 2025 sample; McGreevy gives up a 3 HR / 31 K line vs RHB across his career platoon split. The slug bat is the exception to the right-handed lockdown.
Alec Burleson vs Rhett Lowder. Burleson is the L bat with the cleanest vs-RHP line in this lineup (.296 / .353 / .478, 15 HR in the 2025 sample). Lowder is sitting on a 5.40 ERA across 38.1 IP and a 10.8% walk rate. Two PA of BvP history (0-for-2) is noise; the platoon edge is the real signal.
JJ Bleday vs Michael McGreevy. Bleday is one of three LHB the Reds carry in this roster pool, and McGreevy's LHB line is his vulnerability (.318 AVG / .911 OPS allowed). But Bleday himself is .180 / .273 / .377 vs RHP in 2025 -- the LHB edge meets a struggling LHB. Watch whether McGreevy's tendency or Bleday's slump wins out.
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WATCHLIST
-- McGreevy TTO1 window (154 PA in 2025). .282 AVG / .465 SLG allowed in the first pass through the order. Innings 1-3 are where his line gets loudest -- if Cincinnati's RHBs are going to break through, this is the window.
-- McGreevy home split (50.0 IP). 5.22 ERA at Busch vs 3.55 on the road. Today is a home start -- the gap is real, the cause is unclear, and the report card on it keeps growing.
-- Lowder walk rate (10.8% BB% in 2026). A walks-heavy 38.1 IP profile facing a Cardinals lineup that runs Wetherholt, Herrera, and Burleson at the top. Free passes early should turn into runs.
-- Romero in high leverage. 88.5% strand rate across 26 IR opportunities in 2025. If McGreevy walks out of an inning with traffic, Romero is the arm that closes the door.
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McGreevy's RHB Lockdown Meets Cincinnati's Right-Heavy Lineup -- And His Home Number Tells Another Story
Jun 7, 2026
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2 min read