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YESTERDAY'S RESULT -- COL 8, STL 6
COL 1 0 3 0 1 2 0 0 1 -- 8
STL 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 -- 6
Jake McCarthy homered twice last night -- No. 12 in the first inning and No. 13 in the sixth -- and drove in 3 runs as Colorado won 8-6. Matthew Liberatore allowed 5 earned runs over 5.0 innings. Ivan Herrera went 3-for-5 with 2 runs scored, and Jordan Walker hit home run No. 23 in the eighth, but the Cardinals could not overcome an early deficit.
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THE BREAKDOWN
WHAT WORKED
Ivan Herrera 3-for-5, 2 R, 1 RBI. Jose Fermin 2-for-2 with a double, 3 BB, 1 SB, and 2 RBI. Jordan Walker hit home run No. 23 in the eighth inning. The Cardinals scored in five different innings. WHAT DIDN'T Matthew Liberatore: 5.0 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 1 HR allowed. Jake McCarthy went 4-for-5 with 2 HR and 3 RBI against Cardinals pitching. Gastelum allowed 2 earned runs over 2.0 innings of relief. | ||||||
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BOTTOM LINE
EDGE: Six left-handed bats in the projected Cardinals lineup face Michael Lorenzen, who has posted a 1.030 OPS against left-handed hitters in 2026 (286 batters faced). The structural platoon alignment strongly favors St. Louis in today's series finale.
THREAT: Hunter Goodman (33 HR, .858 OPS) heads a Colorado lineup that scored 8 runs last night. McGreevy must navigate Mickey Moniak (.292 vs. RHP, 238 PA in 2026) and a Rockies club with fresh momentum heading into the rubber match. WATCH: McGreevy's 15.88 ERA over his last 3 starts against a 3.59 full-season mark. He pitches at home today -- his 2026 home ERA is 3.28 -- and limits first-pass batters to a .651 OPS. Whether the baseline form returns this afternoon is the series-deciding question. | ||||||
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KEY MATCHUPS
Alec Burleson vs. Michael Lorenzen: 4-for-5 with 2 HR in career matchups (5 PA -- extreme small sample). Burleson's 2025 line vs. RHP: .296/.353/.478 (419 PA). With Lorenzen's 1.030 OPS allowed against left-handed hitters in 2026, Burleson is the Cardinals' prime contact point to press early.
Mickey Moniak vs. Michael McGreevy: 4-for-6 with 1 HR in career matchups (6 PA). Moniak posts a .292 average against right-handed pitching in 2026 (238 PA). McGreevy's 2026 TTO3 OPS-against is .778 (94 BF) -- if Moniak sees a third pass, the matchup tilts his way. Jake McCarthy -- stolen base timing: McCarthy has not been caught stealing on the season (6 SB, 0 CS). Today's catcher is Jimmy Crooks, who has caught McGreevy in only 2 games (8.2 IP in 2025). An unfamiliar battery facing a perfect stolen-base runner is a live first-inning variable. | ||||||
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WATCHLIST
McGreevy's recent form (see Trend Watch below): Today's start at Busch Stadium -- his 2026 home ERA is 3.28 -- is the first opportunity to interrupt a difficult recent stretch. Worth holding alongside the trend data: his 81 strikeouts this season are a career best, so the underlying profile has not collapsed.
Lorenzen past the fourth inning: In 2026, opposing batters post a .890 OPS against Lorenzen in the second time through the order (207 BF) and a 1.132 OPS in the third (102 BF). If he is still in the game past the fourth, the Cardinals platoon edge compounds with every additional pass. Attack him early -- but do not assume he leaves early. Crooks-McGreevy battery: Jimmy Crooks has caught McGreevy in just 2 games (8.2 IP together in 2025). Pedro Pages has been the primary pairing (14 G, 80.2 IP). A less-familiar battery in a meaningful series finale, combined with McCarthy on the bases, is the game's most underrated live variable. | ||||||
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TREND WATCH
Kyle Leahy, sharpening: Over his last 8 starts (since June 23), Leahy has posted a 1.43 ERA vs. a 4.69 ERA in his prior 14. That reversal -- across 112.1 innings on the season -- is one of the more dramatic in-year pivots on the Cardinals staff.
Matthew Liberatore, unraveling: Over his last 20 starts (since April 13), Liberatore has posted a 6.54 ERA vs. a 3.50 ERA in his first 3 starts. Last night's 5-run outing in 5.0 innings added weight to that line. He is 113.2 innings into a season increasingly defined by that trend. Michael McGreevy, proof or pivot: Over his last 3 starts (since July 23), McGreevy has posted a 15.88 ERA vs. a 3.20 ERA in his prior 19. He starts this afternoon at Busch Stadium -- today's series finale is the first chance to interrupt that run. Worth noting: his 81 strikeouts this season are a career best, so the underlying profile has not collapsed. The recent cluster is the anomaly to watch. |
McGreevy's Last Three Starts: 15.88 Earned Run Average. This Afternoon's Series Finale Is the Proof-or-Pivot.
Aug 9, 2026
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3 min read