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YESTERDAY'S RESULT--CLE 9, STL 3
CLE 1 0 0 3 0 2 0 3 0 -- 9
STL 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 -- 3
Liberatore lasted 5 IP (6 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 2 K). Cleveland broke the game open with 3 runs in the 4th -- Schneemann's 2-RBI single and Hedges' sac fly -- then Rocchio's 2-run HR in the 6th made it 6-2. The 8th inning collapsed: a Fernandez throwing error and Kwan's 2-RBI single added 3 more. Walker (2-for-5, solo HR in the 6th) provided the only Cardinals offense of note. Third straight loss.
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PREDICTION GRADES
2/5 Correct
WRONG: Williams 3+ walks -- he issued just 2 BB in 5.0 IP. CORRECT: CLE scores 2+ runs in innings 4-6 vs Liberatore -- they scored 5 (3 in the 4th, 2 in the 6th). The TTO2 call nailed it. WRONG: Hoskins reaches base 2+ times vs Liberatore -- he reached once (1 BB in 4 AB). WRONG: RHB 4+ reaches vs Williams -- at most 3 reaches against Williams (Walker's HR came in the 6th, after Williams exited at 5.0 IP). Herrera 1 H, Walker 1 H, Fermin 1 BB against Williams; Saggese 0-for-2. CORRECT: Ramirez SB attempt -- Ramirez reached base 3 times (2 H, 1 BB) and stole 2 bases with 0 CS. | ||||||
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BOTTOM LINE
Edge: Cantillo suppresses RHB at a .203 AVG (294 PA career) but walks too many LHB (.373 OBP). The Cardinals' 5 RHB won't find much to hit, but Herrera is the exception -- his .330/.455/.660 line vs. LHP (124 PA, 9 HR, 2025) makes him the primary offensive weapon tonight. Get him up with runners on.
Threat: McGreevy's LHB problem is real: .318/.368/.543 (0.861 OPS) career against left-handed hitters. Cleveland's roster skews heavily left (6 LHB + 4 switch hitters). Worse, McGreevy's home ERA is 5.22 vs. 3.55 on the road. Kwan (.285 vs. RHP, 8.7% K%) and Ramirez (.268/.354/.496 vs. RHP, 24 HR) anchor a lineup built to exploit him. Watch: Cantillo's TTO2 window. His AVG allowed jumps from .204 (TTO1) to .262 (TTO2) in innings 4-6 -- a +.058 delta with OPS climbing from .537 to .701. That stretch is where the Cardinals need to cash in, especially with Herrera and Walker likely seeing Cantillo a second time. | ||||||
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KEY MATCHUPS
1. Herrera vs. Cantillo (LHP). Herrera's .330/.455/.660 vs. LHP is elite production over 124 PA. Cantillo's platoon advantage against RHB (.203 AVG) does not apply to a hitter of Herrera's caliber against lefties -- 9 HR in that 2025 sample. He is the single biggest threat in the Cardinals' lineup tonight. 2. Cleveland's LHB Core vs. McGreevy. McGreevy allows .318 AVG to LHB with .543 SLG (0.861 OPS, 9 HR in 190 PA). Cleveland stacks Kwan (.285 vs. RHP), Manzardo (.242/.324/.458, 22 HR), and Naylor (.198/.289/.403, 12 HR). The switch hitters -- Ramirez (.268/.354/.496 vs. RHP, 24 HR) and Rocchio -- bat from the left side, compounding McGreevy's worst split. 3. McGreevy at Home (5.22 ERA). Home ERA 5.22 vs. 3.55 on the road. More hits (56 vs. 44), more earned runs (29 vs. 18) in comparable innings (50.0 IP home, 45.2 IP away). Busch Stadium has not been McGreevy's friend -- and tonight he faces a lineup built to exploit his weakest split in his weakest environment. | ||||||
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WATCHLIST
Bullpen strand rates. Romero (88.5% strand rate, 26 IR) is the only reliable fireman. Svanson (50.0%), Graceffo (54.5%), and Fernandez (50.0%) are at or below coin-flip strand rates. Last night's Fernandez throwing error (8th inning, 3 runs scored) underscores the risk. When McGreevy exits with runners on, it has to be Romero.
Ramirez on the bases. 44 SB at an 86.3% success rate in 2025. Kwan adds 21 SB. McGreevy's ground-ball approach (49.2% GB%) means infield singles and grounders through the hole -- then they run. With Herrera catching, controlling the running game is critical. Opposite pitcher profiles. Cantillo is high-K (26.9%), moderate-walk (10.5%). McGreevy is low-K (14.5%), extreme-low-walk (5.0%). Cantillo can pitch around trouble with strikeouts. McGreevy lives on contact and needs his defense. Different game scripts, different pressure points. |
McGreevy's .861 OPS to LHB Meets Cleveland's Left-Heavy Roster at Home
Apr 14, 2026
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1 min read