McGreevy at Home: Where the 5.22 ERA Meets a Five-LHB Mariners Lineup

SEA  2 2 0 1 1 1 0 2 2 -- 11
STL  2 1 4 0 0 0 2 0 0 -- 9

SEA 11, STL 9. Cardinals jumped early -- 7 runs in three innings on five home runs (Wetherholt, Herrera, Church, Pages, Church again in the 7th) -- but Liberatore allowed 3 HR in 3.1 IP and the lead never recovered. SEA scored in six of nine half-innings, including 4 runs over the 8th and 9th off O'Brien and Romero. Naylor swiped 2 bases. Series stands at SEA 2-0; sweep on the line today.

Standout: Nathan Church 2-for-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI -- both home runs to right-center. Pages 3-for-3 with a HR and an SB.

BOTTOM LINE

Edge: Cardinals' lefty stack (Burleson, Wetherholt, Church, Gorman, Scott) vs Hancock's 2025 vs-LHB profile (.486 SLG, 12 HR in 211 PA). After yesterday's five-HR explosion, the lefty bats are calibrated.

Threat: SEA's lefty-heavy stack vs McGreevy's 2025 vs-LHB profile (.318/.368/.543, .861 OPS). Naylor (.307 / 30 SB / 93.8%) is hot off 2-for-5 with 2 SB yesterday, and Raleigh (42 HR, .558 SLG vs RHP from the left side) is the single biggest run-scoring threat.

Watch: Hancock's 2025 TTO3 -- .968 OPS, 4 HR in 72 PA. Innings 6-7 are when his game collapses. Plus McGreevy's 2025 home ERA was 5.22 (vs 3.55 on the road); today is at Busch.

-- McGreevy at home (5.22 ERA, 50.0 IP in 2025). 1.67-run gap from his road ERA (3.55). Today is at Busch.

-- Hancock 2026 K-rate spike. 26.7% in 28.2 IP vs 16.6% across 90.0 IP in 2025. If real, K-prone STL bats (Gorman 33.8%, Walker 31.8%) are exposed.

-- SEA running game. Naylor + Arozarena + Rodriguez = 91 SB combined. Expect attempts before the 5th.

-- Sweep on the line. SEA leads 2-0. STL is 2-7 vs SEA across 2023-2025. Today is the avoid-the-sweep game.