STL (9-8) Game 3 of 3 -- Busch Stadium -- 12:15 PM CT CLE (10-8)
May (R) -- 9.45 ERA Wednesday, April 15, 2026 Cecconi (R) -- 5.74 ERA
YESTERDAY'S RESULT--STL 6, CLE 5
CLE  1 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 -- 5
STL  1 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 -- 6
Key performer: JJ Wetherholt (2-for-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI). Wetherholt's two-HR game powered a dramatic comeback. His solo shot in the 3rd and two-run blast in the 8th tied it at 5. Herrera opened the scoring with a solo HR in the 1st. Stanek imploded in the 8th (4 H, 3 R in 0.2 IP) but Svanson and O'Brien slammed the door. Pozo's RBI double in the 9th and Church's walk-off sac fly in the 10th completed the rally.
PREDICTION GRADES
Score: 3/5 Correct

CORRECT -- Herrera multi-reach: 1 H + 1 BB = 2 reaches. Prediction needed 2+.
CORRECT -- Ramirez on-base: 2 H + 1 BB = 3 reaches. Prediction needed 3+.
WRONG -- Cantillo TTO2 scoring: Cardinals scored 0 runs in innings 4-6. Prediction needed 2+.
INCONCLUSIVE -- Romero fireman: Entered at start of 7th with bases empty. Deployment context outside prediction scope.
CORRECT -- McGreevy LHB damage: 3 XBH from L/S hitters (Ramirez HR, Schneemann HR, Manzardo 2B). Prediction needed 3+.
BOTTOM LINE
Edge: Cecconi's RHB platoon weakness (.271/.313/.465, .736 OPS) faces a Cardinals lineup loaded with 6 right-handed bats. Urias (.667 AVG, 4 PA) and Winn (.667, 3 PA) have tiny positive BvP samples. The Cardinals' right-heavy order is designed to exploit Cecconi's weaker side.

Threat: May's career LHB splits (.261/.357/.495, .756 OPS) face a Cleveland roster pool with 10 batters who hit left-handed or switch (6 LHB + 4 SHB). Ramirez (.268/.354/.496 vs RHP), Kwan (.285/.345/.422), and Manzardo (.242/.324/.458 with 22 HR) lead the charge from the left side.

Watch: May's TTO2 collapse. AVG allowed jumps from .226 (TTO1) to .290 (TTO2) -- a +.064 delta with OPS ballooning from .573 to .798. Innings 4-6 are when May historically unravels. His home split (3.24 ERA) buys time early, but the TTO2 window is where Cleveland can blow this open.
KEY MATCHUPS
1. Jose Ramirez vs Dustin May.
Ramirez is 1-for-3 with a walk career vs May (.333/.500 BvP). As a switch hitter batting left against the righty May, he attacks May's vulnerable LHB platoon split (.261/.357/.495). With 44 SB at 86.3% success in 2025, he also threatens on the bases against a new May-Herrera battery.
2. Cardinals RHB vs Cecconi's weaker side.
Cecconi allows .271/.313/.465 to RHB vs .222/.276/.428 to LHB -- an 86-point OPS gap. Six of nine Cardinals bat right-handed. Winn (.667 BvP, 3 PA) and Urias (.667, 4 PA) have tiny positive samples. The 5-6-7 spots (Urias, Winn, Pozo) are where STL accumulates damage.
3. Steven Kwan's contact vs May's K needs.
Kwan (8.7% K%, 7.9% BB%) denies strikeouts and puts the ball in play. In 4 career PA vs May: 1-for-3, 1 BB, 0 K. May needs strikeouts (21.1% K%) to survive -- Kwan refuses to provide them. If Kwan reaches early, his speed (21 SB, 80.8%) creates pressure for hitters behind him.
WATCHLIST
X-FACTOR: May's new battery. May has zero career games with Herrera catching. His Dodgers-era battery data shows a best ERA of 3.89 (with Rushing) and 4.98 (with Smith). The unfamiliar pairing could create pitch-selection friction early -- and Cleveland's patient hitters (Ramirez 9.8% BB%, Naylor 10.9%, Hoskins 11.6%) are positioned to punish miscommunication.

JACKIE ROBINSON DAY: All players wear #42 today. Series rubber match -- tied 1-1. First pitch 12:15 PM CT at Busch Stadium.

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