May's TTO2 Cliff vs. Witt and Pasquantino: Innings 4-6 Decide Cardinals-Royals

STL  0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 -- 5
OAK  1 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 -- 4

Cardinals took the rubber game 5-4 to win the series 2-of-3 in Oakland. McGreevy went 6.0 IP allowing 1 ER on 5 H with 1 BB and 3 K, with Nick Kurtz's first-inning solo HR the only damage on his line. Walker's solo HR in the 6th and Scott's solo HR in the 5th drew the Cardinals even before Gorman's 6th-inning RBI single put STL ahead. The bullpen coughed up a three-run 7th (Stanek allowed a Gelof HR and inherited runners scored against Romero on a Langeliers two-run single), but the Cardinals reclaimed it in the 9th when Herrera and Walker each drove in a run off Perkins. Pozo went 3-for-4.

PREDICTION GRADES

CORRECT -- Lopez walks: Lopez issued 3 BB in 5.0 IP. Threshold 3+. 3 >= 3.

CORRECT -- Kurtz reaches base: Kurtz went 2-for-3 with 1 BB. 2 H + 1 BB = 3 reaches. Threshold 2+. 3 >= 2.

CORRECT -- STL TTO2 scoring: Cardinals posted 0 + 1 + 2 = 3 runs across innings 4-6 (Scott solo HR in the 5th, then Walker solo HR + Gorman RBI single in the 6th). Threshold 2+. 3 >= 2.

WRONG -- Herrera reaches base: Herrera went 1-for-5 with 0 BB. 1 H + 0 BB = 1 reach. Threshold 2+. 1 < 2.

WRONG -- McGreevy K total: McGreevy recorded 3 K in 6.0 IP. Threshold 4+. 3 < 4.

Hit rate: 3/5 (60%)

BOTTOM LINE

Edge: May is back at Busch. His 2025 home/away split is dramatic -- 3.24 ERA at home (75.0 IP) vs 6.28 on the road (57.1 IP). Wacha's 2.63 2026 ERA is real, but the table tonight reads against him: his 2025 TTO3 line is .322 AVG / .469 SLG / .846 OPS -- a sharp third pass through the order cliff. The Cardinals' path is to push him into innings 7+ with the heart of the order.

Threat: Bobby Witt has the look against May -- career BvP 6 PA, .400 / .500 / 1.000 with 1 HR, zero strikeouts. His 2025 vs RHP line is .287 / .341 / .506 with 22 HR in 543 PA. Vinnie Pasquantino is the secondary danger from the left side: .281 / .346 / .511 vs RHP in 2025 with 26 HR, exactly the bat May leaks against (.495 SLG, 15 HR allowed vs LHB in 334 PA).

Watch: May's second pass through the order. 2025 TTO1: .226 AVG / .652 OPS. 2025 TTO2: .290 AVG / .878 OPS -- a hard cliff. Innings 4-6 are where the Royals get their swings, and the Witt / Pasquantino / Perez core lines up to come around right when May gets exposed.

-- May second pass through the order. 2025 TTO1: .226 / .652 OPS. 2025 TTO2: .290 / .878 OPS. The jump is the largest TTO break on either pitcher tonight -- innings 4-6 carry the damage risk for the Cardinals' starter.

-- Wacha third pass through the order. 2025 TTO3: .322 / .469 / .846 OPS in 159 PA -- the highest TTO bucket of either starter's table. If the Cardinals can stretch him past 78-ish pitches, the third pass is where this lineup gets its best swings.

-- May-Pages fresh battery. Every catcher in May's 2025 IP sample (Will Smith, Rushing, Narvaez, Barnes, Wong) is from his prior Dodgers / interleague work, not the Cardinals' active roster. Tonight's catcher is Pedro Pages with 0 career IP paired with May in this dataset -- an unfamiliar pop-time and sequencing combo. Watch the first-pass execution.

-- Royals running game. Witt's 2025 SB profile is 38 / 9 (80.9%) -- 4th-most steals on either roster, with elite efficiency. Garcia at 23 / 9 (71.9%) and Collins at 16 / 7 (69.6%) round out the live threats. The Pages-May battery is fresh; the Royals' top-of-order speed is the leverage point if the walks come.

-- Romero bridge. 88.5% 2025 strand on 26 inherited is the cleanest exit valve in the Cardinals pen, well above league average (68-72%). If May walks into a Pasquantino-Caglianone-Massey LHB pocket trouble, Romero is the lefty hammer.