May's TTO2 Cliff and Wrobleski's Reverse Platoon: Where the Sweep Lives

LAD  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 -- 2
STL  0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 -- 3

Cardinals took game 2, 3-2. All three runs came in the third on Burleson's RBI double scoring Herrera and Walker's two-run HR (his 10th). McGreevy held LAD scoreless across 6.0 IP (3 H, 3 BB, 3 K) before O'Brien gave back two in the ninth on RBI singles by Muncy and Pages. STL leads the series 2-0.

PREDICTION GRADES

WRONG -- Sasaki walk total: Sasaki issued 2 BB in 6.0 IP. Threshold: 3+. 2 < 3.

WRONG -- Tucker reaches base: Tucker went 1-for-4 with 0 BB. Reaches = 1. Threshold: 2+. 1 < 2.

WRONG -- McGreevy K total: McGreevy recorded 3 K in 6.0 IP. Threshold: 5+. 3 < 5.

WRONG -- STL K total: Cardinals batters combined for 5 K (Wetherholt 1, Herrera 1, Burleson 1, Gorman 2, others 0). Threshold: 8+. 5 < 8.

WRONG -- LAD TTO2 scoring vs McGreevy: LAD scored 0 runs across innings 4-6 (linescore 0-0-0). Threshold: 2+. 0 < 2.

Hit rate: 0/5 (0%)

BOTTOM LINE

Edge: Cardinals' RHB core meets Wrobleski's reverse split. Pages is 4-for-6 career vs Wrobleski with 2 HR, and Winn is 3-for-6 with 1 HR. Wrobleski's 2025 line vs RHB (.276 / .322 / .396 over 208 PA) is markedly worse than vs LHB (.195 / .256 / .317 over 92 PA) -- and STL's 4 RHB are Herrera, Walker, Winn, and Pages.

Threat: Kyle Tucker. 2-for-4 career vs May (.500 AVG, .500 SLG) with one walk, and the LAD pool's best on-base bat vs RHP in 2025 (.380 OBP, 14.6% BB%). Career baserunning 25 SB / 3 CS (89.3% success) -- with Pages catching for May for the first time in this dataset, the running game is live.

Watch: May's second pass through the order. 2025 first pass through the order: .226 / .305 / .347 (.573 OPS) over 227 PA. Second pass through the order jumps to .290 / .370 / .508 (.798 OPS) over 220 PA, with 9 HR. Innings 4-6 are the danger window.

-- Tucker baserunning. 25 SB / 3 CS career (89.3% success). Pages-May is a fresh battery (0 IP together in this dataset) -- pop-time calibration is unproven.

-- Wrobleski reverse split. 2025 vs LHB .195 / .256 / .317 (.512 OPS) over 92 PA, vs RHB .276 / .322 / .396 (.672 OPS) over 208 PA. The Cardinals' 4 RHB carry the matchup edge -- the LHB heart of the order may not.

-- May's 2025 home/away. 3.24 ERA at home (75.0 IP) vs 6.28 ERA away (57.1 IP) in his prior environment. Today is functionally a "home" start for May at Busch -- the favorable historical anchor, but the venue context has shifted.

-- Bullpen fork. Romero 88.5% IR strand (26 IR, 3 scored) vs Svanson 50.0% (26 IR, 13 scored). The arm called with traffic decides the middle innings.