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YESTERDAY'S RESULT--MIA 5, STL 3
MIA 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 1 0 -- 5
STL 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 -- 3
McGreevy wore the loss -- 5.2 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, including a 5th-inning solo HR to Agustin Ramirez. Miami strung two across in the 6th (Lopez RBI double, Hicks RBI single) to break it open. Cardinals offense managed just 5 hits: Winn 2-for-3 with an RBI, Walker 1-for-3 with a walk and a SB, Urias and Herrera 1 hit each. Stowers and Lopez each reached twice for Miami and scored 4 of the 5 runs between them.
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PREDICTION GRADES
WRONG -- Meyer walk trouble: Meyer issued 2 BB in 5.1 IP. Needed 3+. Fell short.
CORRECT -- Stowers reaches base: Stowers went 1-for-3 with 1 BB (1 H + 1 BB = 2). Threshold 2+. 2 >= 2. CORRECT -- McGreevy HR allowed: McGreevy surrendered 1 HR (Ramirez, 5th inning). Threshold 1+. 1 >= 1. WRONG -- Edwards SB attempt: Edwards finished 0 SB / 0 CS. Needed SB+CS >= 1. 0 < 1. CORRECT -- Cardinals K total: Cardinals batters combined for 13 K. Threshold 8+. 13 >= 8. Hit rate: 3/5 (60%) | ||||||
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BOTTOM LINE
Edge: Paddack has yielded 4 HR in 19.1 IP this season (0-3, 5.59 ERA) and his career TTO2 mark (.283 AVG, .783 OPS) is his worst split. Cardinals get second and third looks with Burleson (.296/.353/.478 vs RHP career), Herrera (.268/.343/.399 vs RHP), and Winn (.251/.309/.368 vs RHP). If the STL lineup makes Paddack work into the 5th, the margin opens.
Threat: Kyle Stowers vs RHP -- 356 PA, .297/.377/.597 with 24 HR. He reached twice yesterday and scored 2 of Miami's 5 runs. May's vs-LHB line (.261/.357/.495, 15 HR in 334 PA) fits Stowers' swing profile precisely. One mistake pitch and the game swings. Watch: May's home/away split -- 6.28 ERA on the road (57.1 IP, 12 HR) vs 3.24 ERA at home. Tonight he's the away version at loanDepot. Layer on his reverse TTO pattern (.573 OPS TTO1 -> .798 TTO2 -> .780 TTO3) and innings 4-6 are the danger window. A short hook with Romero (88.5% strand) waiting is the script. | ||||||
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KEY MATCHUPS
Otto Lopez vs Dustin May. 2-for-2 career (1.000 AVG) in a tiny sample, and Lopez owns a .270/.333/.413 line vs RHP across 403 PA with 12 HR. He scored 2 of Miami's 5 runs yesterday. First Marlin in the order to worry about if he hits top-third of the lineup.
Alec Burleson vs Chris Paddack. No career BvP, but Burleson is the one Cardinals LHB worth building around (.296/.353/.478 vs RHP, 15 HR in 419 PA) and Paddack has allowed 18 HR in 345 PA to LHB (.492 SLG). Batting third tonight -- he gets the heart-of-order at-bats.
Agustin Ramirez vs May. 0-for-3 career (small), but Ramirez just homered off McGreevy and his .432 SLG vs RHP (419 PA) plus 49.4% GB rate says he can drive the ball up in the zone. May allows .495 SLG to lefties, yet has given up 6 HR in 250 PA to RHB too -- Ramirez is not safe.
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WATCHLIST
-- May's TTO window. Career TTO1 .226/.305/.347 (.573 OPS) -- his best split. TTO2 jumps to .290/.370/.508. Innings 4-6 are when the lineup sees him best.
-- Xavier Edwards on the bases. 27 SB / 7 CS career (79.4%). Hit .306 vs RHP in 421 PA. Held to 0 SB yesterday but got on twice -- Herrera's pop time is the live question anytime Edwards reaches.
-- Bullpen fork. Romero 88.5% strand rate vs Svanson 50.0% and Fernandez 50.0%. If May exits with traffic in the 5th or 6th, which arm answers the phone decides the middle innings.
-- Jordan Walker K risk. 31.8% K rate (126 K in 396 PA) and .200 AVG vs RHP. Paddack's 16.7% K rate isn't elite, but Walker's swing-and-miss profile makes him the easiest out in the middle of the order.
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May's Away ERA Meets loanDepot; Paddack's TTO3 Cliff Is the Counter
Apr 21, 2026
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5 min read