| ||||||
|
BOTTOM LINE
Edge: Kolek's 2025 home/road line is inverted -- 5.13 ERA in 40.1 home innings vs 2.24 in 72.1 road innings -- and his vs-LHB profile (.300 OBP, .381 SLG, .681 OPS) is the softer side of the split. The Cardinals project six left-handed bats from Wetherholt through Church.
Threat: Bobby Witt is 2-for-5 with a HR in his career sample against May (.400/.500/1.000) and posts a .287/.341/.506 line vs RHP in 2025. Add 38 SB at 80.9% -- he is the lineup's ignition every plate appearance. Watch: May's second pass through the order is the giveback -- .290 AVG, .508 SLG, .878 OPS in TTO2 in his 2025 sample, and .263/.517/.882 in TTO3. KC saw him in this same series; the lineup turning over twice is where damage compounds. | ||||||
|
KEY MATCHUPS
Burleson vs Kolek. 1-for-3 with a HR in the career BvP sample. Burleson is .296/.353/.478 vs RHP in 2025, and Kolek allows .381 SLG to LHB this year -- the platoon edge of the day.
Witt vs May. 2-for-5 with a HR in 6 career PA. Witt's .287/.341/.506 vs RHP in 2025 plus 38 SB at 80.9% gives KC its single highest-leverage at-bat on the day.
Wetherholt vs Kolek. No career sample for the leadoff lefty, but he carries a .302 RISP AVG in 2026 -- his job is to make Kolek work early before the order's lefty core comes around.
| ||||||
|
WATCHLIST
-- May at Kauffman. 6.28 ERA on the road in his 2025 sample with 12 HR in 57.1 away innings, versus 3.24 and 9 HR in 75 home innings. He is on the wrong side of the venue split today.
-- Witt running game. 38 SB at 80.9% against a fresh battery -- Jimmy Crooks has 0 IP paired with May in the available battery sample.
-- Kolek home/road inversion. 5.13 ERA at Kauffman vs 2.24 on the road in 2025 -- the venue tilt cuts against him today even with a 2.68 overall mark.
-- Svanson leverage. 50.0% inherited-runners strand rate (13 of 26 scored) against Romero's 88.5% -- the bullpen call when men are on flips the math.
|
May's 6.28 Road ERA Meets Kauffman
Jun 21, 2026
•
1 min read