Marte Is 3-for-8 Against Liberatore. With a Home Run.

CIN  3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -- 3
STL  2 0 1 0 1 6 0 0 0 -- 10

The Cardinals trailed 3-0 after Stewart's 2-RBI double and a Suárez RBI single in the top of the 1st, then ground the lead away over the next five innings. Burleson's 3rd-inning solo HR (8) and Walker's 5th-inning RBI double bridged to a six-run 6th built entirely on small ball -- Nootbaar double, Herrera single, Winn HBP, Fermin infield single, Crooks walk, Scott walk -- six different baserunner events, no homers. Burleson finished 4 R / 2 H / 1 HR / 1 RBI / 1 BB. Dobbins delivered 5.0 scoreless in relief (4 H, 0 R, 6 K) to lock the win.

PREDICTION GRADES

CORRECT -- Singer walk trouble: Singer issued 3 BB in 4.0 IP. Threshold: 3+. 3 >= 3.

WRONG -- Singer HR allowed: Singer allowed 1 HR. Threshold: 2+. 1 < 2.

CORRECT -- Cardinals K total: Cardinals batters combined for 10 K (Nootbaar 1, Herrera 1, Walker 1, Torres 1, Winn 1, Gorman 2, Crooks 2, Scott 1). Threshold: 8+. 10 >= 8.

CORRECT -- Burleson reaches base: Burleson 2 H + 1 BB = 3 reaches. Threshold: 2+. 3 >= 2.

WRONG -- Walker strikeouts: Walker had 1 K. Threshold: 2+. 1 < 2.

Hit rate: 3/5 (60%)

BOTTOM LINE

Edge: Lodolo's reverse splits put the Cardinals' 4 LHB (Wetherholt, Burleson, Gorman, Church) at the throat of the matchup. Lodolo has held RHB to .214 / .263 / .375 but LHB hit .298 / .361 / .420 -- and he travels to Busch with his stronger context (2.66 away ERA vs 3.97 at home). The lineup configuration is built for the side he leaks.

Threat: Marte. He is 3-for-8 with 1 HR against Liberatore (9 PA, .375 / .444 / .750), the only opponent bat with a meaningful career BvP sample. Stewart (1 HR in 3 PA) and Lowe (1 HR in 3 PA) are the small-sample echo -- every Red who has touched Liberatore in any sample has touched him hard.

Watch: Liberatore's second pass through the order. First pass: .237 AVG, .376 SLG, .657 OPS. Second pass: .310 AVG, .511 SLG, .871 OPS. Innings 4-6 are when Myers, Bleday, and Marte see him a second time. The third pass flattens (.244 / .353 / .641) -- the second pass is the cliff.

-- Liberatore TTO2 window. .310 AVG, .511 SLG, .871 OPS in the second pass through the order. Innings 4-6 are the published cliff -- if Cincinnati extends Liberatore to a second look, that is the high-value zone.

-- Bullpen fork: Romero vs Svanson. Romero strands inherited runners at 88.5% (26 IR). Svanson strands them at 50.0% (26 IR). Whichever arm gets the runners-on call decides the middle innings.

-- Reds team speed. Myers (18 SB, 78.3%) and McLain (18 SB, 90.0%) are the top two stolen-base totals in the lineup pool. Pages's battery work is the brake.