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YESTERDAY'S RESULT -- STL 10, CIN 9
STL 1 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 6 -- 10
CIN 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 4 -- 9
Jordan Walker's three-run home run (26) in the third inning gave St. Louis a 4-0 lead, but Cincinnati erased it with five in the sixth -- Matt McLain's grand slam (12) was the blow. Jose Fermin came off the bench and went 2-for-2 with two RBI in the Cardinals' six-run ninth. Riley O'Brien closed after George Soriano allowed four earned runs in 0.2 innings to make the final score 10-9.
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THE BREAKDOWN
WHAT WORKED
• Walker's 26th homer -- a three-run shot in the third -- and a first-inning run-scoring groundout gave him four RBI and set the early tone • Jose Fermin delivered off the bench: 2-for-2, two RBI in the ninth, driving home two runners during the six-run rally • Peter Strzelecki threw two scoreless innings to bridge the bullpen from the seventh through the eighth • JJ Wetherholt reached base throughout and crossed the plate three times WHAT DIDN'T • George Soriano surrendered four earned runs in 0.2 innings in the ninth, turning a six-run lead into a one-run finish • Ryne Stanek allowed two earned runs in 0.2 innings bridging the sixth and seventh after Michael McGreevy's departure • Blaze Jordan (0-for-4) and Jimmy Crooks (0-for-2) went a combined 0-for-6 from the lower third of the lineup | ||||||
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BOTTOM LINE
Threat: The Cardinals open a three-game series in Philadelphia tonight against Jesus Luzardo (11-5, 3.23 ERA), a left-hander with a pronounced platoon edge against left-handed hitters. With five left-handed bats likely in tonight's lineup -- Wetherholt, Burleson, Church, Torres, and Crooks -- the four right-handed options carry the offensive weight: Ivan Herrera, Jordan Walker, Joshua Baez, and Blaze Jordan.
Edge: Luzardo pitches at home tonight, and his home ERA this season runs well above his road mark -- the one split that cuts in the Cardinals' favor. Watch: St. Louis is 2.5 games back in the wild card race with 33 games to play. The Cardinals' right-handed bats against Luzardo's second pass are the game within the game. | ||||||
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KEY MATCHUPS
Ivan Herrera vs. Luzardo (platoon edge): Batting second, Herrera carries the Cardinals' best right-handed split against a left-handed starter. His 2025 line vs LHP: .330/.455/.660 across 124 PA. His 2026 OPS vs LHP is .797 across 178 PA. Career against Luzardo: 5 PA -- too small to weight. The platoon data is the relevant frame tonight.
Jordan Walker vs. Luzardo: Walker's 2026 numbers against left-handed pitching -- .288 AVG, .918 OPS across 144 PA -- are the strongest current-year right-handed split in the projected lineup. Career vs Luzardo: 8 PA (.250/.250/.250, 0 BB, 2 K). The 2026 vs-LHP data leads. The five left-handed bats: Wetherholt, Burleson, Church, Torres, and Crooks all face Luzardo at a structural platoon disadvantage -- he has held left-handed hitters to a .392 OPS this season (155 BF). Burleson's 2026 vs-LHP numbers -- .209/.244/.304 across 168 PA -- have fallen well below his 2025 sample (127 PA, .271/.310/.398). The second time through the order: Luzardo's second-pass OPS this season is .831 across 225 batters faced -- a jump from his first-pass .413 OPS. The Cardinals' four right-handed bats getting second looks are where to direct attention as the game progresses. | ||||||
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WATCHLIST
The second-pass window: Luzardo's OPS climbs sharply his second time through the order. Look for Walker, Herrera, Baez, and Jordan to get their best cracks around the fourth or fifth inning when the lineup turns over.
Ivan Herrera early: Batting second, Herrera faces Luzardo in fresh counts from the start. His 2025 record against left-handed pitching is the most favorable split in the projected order tonight. Luzardo at home: Luzardo carries a 4.63 ERA at Citizens Bank Park this season compared to 1.95 on the road. Nathan Church's assignment: Church has posted a .490 OPS over his last 130 plate appearances since July 4. Against tonight's left-hander, Church's spot in the order represents one of the steeper climbs in tonight's lineup. Soriano's role after yesterday afternoon: After allowing four earned runs in 0.2 innings in Cincinnati, watch how manager Oliver Marmol pieces together the bullpen in close situations tonight -- specifically whether Soriano is available and who carries the middle innings. | ||||||
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TREND WATCH
Nathan Church's slump (since July 4): Church has posted a .490 OPS over his last 130 plate appearances since July 4, down from .726 in the 225 PA before that date. His 2026 overall line is .235/.280/.355. Tonight he faces a left-hander who has held left-handed hitters to a .392 OPS this season -- the most structurally difficult matchup in the projected order.
Riley O'Brien's save pace: O'Brien has 33 saves through 129 team games, on pace for 41 on the season. He needs seven more to reach 40. He carries a 2.94 ERA across 52 innings this season. Andre Pallante's win pace: Pallante has 12 wins with 33 team games remaining, on pace for 15. His 2026 ERA is 3.57 across 136 innings. His last five starts have produced a 2.11 ERA compared to 4.30 before that stretch -- a sharpening trend with 33 games remaining. |
Luzardo Owns Left-Handed Hitters. The Cardinals Are Sending Five. Here's What Matters Tonight.
Aug 21, 2026
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3 min read