Liberatore's TTO2 Window: The Cardinals' Biggest Sweep Threat Is Their Own Starter

HOU  1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 -- 5
STL  2 0 2 0 0 1 1 1 0 -- 7

Cardinals built a 7-1 lead through seven on four homers -- Burleson (3), Winn (1), Fermin (1), and a Gorman two-run single in the first that featured a Cam Smith fielding error. Pallante delivered the start: 5.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 5 K, 3 BB. The bullpen gave back four in the eighth and ninth -- Soriano took the brunt with a 3-run HR allowed in 0.1 IP, then Whitcomb's three-run shot in the ninth made the final tighter than the game played -- but Cardinals secured the series win with a chance at the sweep.

PREDICTION GRADES

WRONG -- McCullers walk trouble: McCullers issued 3 BB in 5.0 IP. Needed 4+. Close but under.

CORRECT -- Cardinals K total: Cardinals batters combined for 11 K (Winn 3, Herrera 2, Walker 2, Church 2, Fermin 1, Wetherholt 1). Threshold: 7+. 11 >= 7.

WRONG -- Pallante earned runs: Pallante allowed 1 ER in 5.0 IP. Needed 2+. Only the Alvarez solo HR scored against him.

WRONG -- Herrera reaches base: Herrera 0 H + 0 BB = 0 reaches in 4 AB. Threshold: 2+. Zero-for-four with 2 K.

WRONG -- HOU TTO2 scoring: Houston innings 4-6 = 0+0+0 = 0 runs. Threshold: 2+. Pallante shut the middle innings down.

Hit rate: 1/5 (20%)

BOTTOM LINE

Edge: Burrows enters with a 6.55 ERA and 1.82 WHIP through 22.0 IP, and his career profile shows a sharp TTO2 jump -- .215 AVG / .564 OPS first time through the order, then .274 / .699 second time. Cardinals ride a 4-game win streak built on early scoring; HOU has lost three straight. Get to him before the lineup loops.

Threat: Yordan Alvarez is .344 / .447 / .656 in 38 career PA vs LHP and homered off Pallante in the first inning yesterday. A .656 SLG against same-handed pitching is the kind of platoon-defying line that breaks a game open. Liberatore allows .274 / .348 vs LHB (133 PA), so the matchup tilts Alvarez's direction.

Watch: Liberatore's TTO2 is the structural weak spot -- .310 AVG / .821 OPS the second time through (252 PA, +.208 OPS jump from TTO1). That window arrives in innings 4-6 against Alvarez, Correa (.272 / .350 / .440 vs LHP), and Altuve (.261 / .331 / .468 with 7 HR in 124 PA vs LHP).

-- Burrows TTO1 window. .215 AVG / .564 OPS first time through the order vs .274 / .699 second time -- a +.135 OPS jump. Cardinals need to either jump on him in the first two innings or cycle him out into the third pass.

-- Liberatore TTO2 collision. .310 AVG / .821 OPS second time through (252 PA). The vulnerable window arrives in innings 4-6, when the top of the HOU order loops with Alvarez fresh off a HR.

-- Bullpen fork. Romero 88.5% strand rate vs Svanson 50.0% / Graceffo 54.5% / Fernandez 50.0%. Yesterday Soriano gave up 3 ER in 0.1 IP. Marmol's leverage choice with runners on decides the late innings.

-- Loperfido / Trammell vs LHP. Loperfido .350 / .409 in 23 PA vs LHP, Trammell .308 / .438 in 16 PA. Small samples, but if HOU stacks lefties against Liberatore the platoon advantage they'd normally lose disappears.