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YESTERDAY'S RESULT -- ARI 4, STL 3
ARI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 -- 4
STL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 -- 3
Eight scoreless innings, then both bullpens cracked. Arenado doubled in Moreno, Gurriel singled home Vargas and Arenado off Svanson, and Arizona had a 4-0 lead. The Cardinals answered in the bottom half -- Burleson doubled in Nootbaar, Jordan's sac fly scored Fermin, Crooks singled in Burleson -- but the rally died one run short. Leahy's 6.1 scoreless was wasted by 0.1 IP of Svanson (3 ER).
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PREDICTION GRADES
WRONG -- Herrera reaches base: Herrera went 0-for-3 with 1 BB. 0 H + 1 BB = 1 reach. Needed 2+.
WRONG -- Carroll reaches base: Carroll went 0-for-4 with 0 BB and 2 K. 0 reaches. Needed 2+. WRONG -- STL early scoring: Cardinals scored 0 runs across innings 1-3 (linescore 0-0-0). Needed 2+. WRONG -- Leahy K total: Leahy struck out 3 in 6.1 IP. Needed 5+. WRONG -- Cardinals K total: Cardinals batters combined for 9 K. Threshold was 7 or fewer. 9 > 7. Hit rate: 0/5 (0%) | ||||||
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BOTTOM LINE
Edge: Mitch Bratt is a complete unknown -- no career data, no 2026 line. Cardinals batters face a rookie blind, and Liberatore is meaningfully sharper at home (3.69 ERA vs 4.03 on the road). Take the unfamiliarity advantage early.
Threat: Geraldo Perdomo. His 2025 vs LHP is .341/.416/.486 with an 11.5% K% and 13.1% BB% -- the toughest out in the lineup against a lefty starter. He's also 2-for-3 in the small career BvP sample vs Liberatore. Watch: Liberatore's TTO2 cliff. 2025 second pass through the order: .310 AVG / .511 SLG / .871 OPS -- a steep jump from the first pass (.237 / .376 / .657). Innings 4-6 is where Arizona's contact bats (Perdomo, Marte) get their cleanest looks. | ||||||
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KEY MATCHUPS
Liberatore vs Perdomo. The matchup of the night. Perdomo's 2025 vs LHP slash (.341/.416/.486) is elite, his 11.5% K% is the lowest in Arizona's lineup, and the career BvP sample (2-for-3) tilts his way. Liberatore allows a .274 AVG to LHB in 2025 -- and Perdomo bats from the left side against him.
Liberatore vs Marte. Switch-hitter with a .525 SLG vs LHP and 9 HR in that 2025 sample. Career BvP is 1-for-2 with a double's worth of slug. If a 9th-inning HR-and-a-pulse pattern repeats, Marte is the most likely source.
STL bats vs Bratt. Zero career data. Zero 2026 line. The Cardinals are essentially in a scouting vacuum here -- but Bratt's anonymity cuts both ways. Take the at-bats patiently and let the rookie show his shapes; the first pass through the order is the cleanest look anyone will get all night.
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WATCHLIST
-- Liberatore TTO2 cliff. 2025 second pass through the order: .310 AVG / .871 OPS vs .657 OPS on the first pass. Innings 4-6 is the danger window; mark the second time Perdomo and Marte come up.
-- Crooks behind the plate. Tonight's catcher is Jimmy Crooks, who has only 2 G / 11.0 IP paired with Liberatore in the battery sample. Fresh battery, fresh signal sequencing -- watch for early-count mistake calls.
-- Walker's contact problem. .200 AVG / 31.8% 2025 K% vs RHP. Bratt is a right-hander; Walker is the swing-and-miss tax in the middle of the order until he proves otherwise.
-- Arizona's free-pass aversion. Vargas (1.7% BB%), Barrosa (2.6%), Gurriel (5.7%), Arenado (6.4%) -- four hitters who refuse to walk. Liberatore's 6.2% 2025 BB% will not be tested by this lineup; strikes will be put in play.
-- Bullpen fork: Romero vs Svanson. Romero's 88.5% 2025 strand rate vs Svanson's 50.0%. Last night Svanson surrendered 4 R in 0.1 IP. Which arm enters with runners on decides the middle innings.
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Liberatore's TTO2 Trap: The Window Arizona Will Hunt
Jun 24, 2026
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2 min read