Liberatore's TTO2 Cliff and Baldwin's 2-for-2: Where Game 2 Turns

ATL  0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 -- 1
STL  0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 -- 2

JJ Wetherholt reached twice on walks, Ivan Herrera collected two hits, and Jimmy Crooks broke a 1-1 tie with an 8th-inning solo homer to center off Danny Young. Kyle Leahy opened with 3.0 shutout innings (2 K); the bullpen combined for the final 6.0 IP and allowed only the Yastrzemski-Riley run in the 5th. Chris Sale went 3.0 for Atlanta with 5 K -- Reynaldo Lopez did not pitch and draws Game 2 tonight.

PREDICTION GRADES

CORRECT -- Herrera reaches base: Ivan Herrera went 2-for-4 with 0 BB; 2 reaches. Threshold: 1+. 2 >= 1.

CORRECT -- Riley hits: Austin Riley went 1-for-2 with 1 BB and an RBI single in the 5th. Threshold: 1+. 1 >= 1.

CORRECT -- Cardinals strikeouts: Cardinals batters combined for 11 K (Walker 1, Velazquez 2, Burleson 1, Winn 1, Fermin 2, Jordan 2, Pages 1, Torres 1). Threshold: 9+. 11 >= 9.

WRONG -- Sale strikeouts: Chris Sale recorded 5 K in 3.0 IP before exiting. Threshold: 7+. 5 < 7.

WRONG -- Leahy walks: Kyle Leahy issued 0 BB across 3.0 opening IP. Threshold: 2+. 0 < 2.

Hit rate: 3/5 (60%)

BOTTOM LINE

Edge: Busch has been Liberatore's steadier context -- 3.69 career ERA at home vs 4.03 on the road -- and tonight's Braves lineup is left-heavy at the top (Smith, Baldwin, Olson, Yastrzemski, Harris) with real cracks against LHP. Yastrzemski is at .138/.204/.223 in 104 PA vs LHP (2025), and the platoon lean sets up favorable at-bats for Liberatore's early innings.

Threat: Drake Baldwin is 2-for-2 career against Liberatore with 0 K and is slashing .299/.358/.460 in 95 PA vs LHP (2025) -- the biggest single-batter red flag on the card. Joey Bart has an HR in a 6-PA career sample vs Lib and .306/.419/.472 vs LHP (2025); Austin Riley owns a .500 OBP career vs Liberatore (2 BB in 6 PA). Elevated pitch selection has to start with those three.

Watch: Liberatore's second pass through the order. OPS jumps from .657 (TTO1) to .871 (TTO2) before settling back at .641 (TTO3) -- a pronounced middle-innings cliff. If Cardinals have to bridge innings 4-6 with the pen, Romero (88.5% strand) and O'Brien (70.0%) are the reliable arms; Svanson (50.0%) and Graceffo (54.5%) are the volatile ones against league average of about 68-72%.

-- Liberatore TTO2 cliff (252 PA). Second pass through the order jumps to .310/.360/.511/.871 in the career sample. Innings 4-6 are the leverage window.

-- Crooks-Liberatore battery (2 G, 11.0 IP together). Tonight's catcher per the projected card is Jimmy Crooks -- the smallest sample in the battery table. Pages (15 G) has been Lib's primary catcher; a rookie backstop pairing is its own scouting angle in the middle innings.

-- Braves speed on Crooks. Harris (20 SB, 76.9%), Mateo (15 SB, 88.2%), Albies (14 SB, 82.4%), White (10 SB, 90.9%) -- a live running game against a rookie catcher's pop times.

-- Braves plate contact split. Contact-heavy: Dubon 10.6% K%, Albies 14.1% K%, Baldwin 15.2% K%. Whiff-prone: Mateo 36.1% K%, Riley 28.6% K%, Bart 28.0% K% (all 2025). Sequence the middle third around the low-K bats.