Liberatore's third pass through the order: 1.124 OPS against in 24 starts, tonight at Coors

STL  0 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 3 -- 7
COL  1 0 0 0 0 4 1 0 0 -- 6

Ivan Herrera's three-run homer in the ninth capped a 7-6 Cardinals win over Colorado last night, opening the series at Coors Field. Herrera went 2-for-5 with a homer and 3 RBI; Thomas Saggese and Nolan Gorman each drove in a run in a two-run second. St. Louis overcame a 6-4 deficit entering the ninth, with the bullpen allowing five runs across the sixth and seventh innings before the offense answered.

THE BREAKDOWN

WHAT WORKED
- Ivan Herrera's three-run homer in the ninth -- his 15th -- scored Saggese and Jose Fermin to put St. Louis ahead for good.
- The Cardinals posted a two-run second on RBI singles from Gorman (scoring Bernal) and a Saggese double (scoring Baez) off Ryan Feltner.
- Andre Pallante held Colorado to 1 run on 2 hits over 5 innings, keeping the Cardinals in position to win.
- Riley O'Brien and Cade Winquest combined for 2.2 scoreless innings to bridge the deficit and set up the ninth.

WHAT DIDN'T
- Hancel Rincon allowed 3 runs (including a home run) on 3 hits in just one-third of an inning in the sixth, turning a 4-1 lead into a 4-4 tie.
- Justin Bruihl followed with 2 more runs allowed on 3 hits (including another homer) across one inning, turning the tie into a 6-4 Colorado lead.
- The leadoff spot went hitless: Bryan Torres went 0-for-2 with a walk before Jose Fermin replaced him and went 0-for-2 as well -- though both came around to score.

BOTTOM LINE

Edge: St. Louis sends four left-handed bats -- Bryan Torres, Alec Burleson, Nolan Gorman, and Nathan Church -- against Mason Adams, whose 2026 splits show .691 OPS allowed against left-handed batters and .956 against right-handed batters across just 19 batters faced per side, samples too small to compare reliably. The raw gap runs against the Cardinal lefties, not for them, so the cleaner read is each hitter's own platoon line: Burleson's .932 OPS against right-handed pitching this season is the lineup's best, and Adams's 2026 walk rate of 13.2% makes extended counts the Cardinals' clearest path on base regardless of handedness.

Threat: Hunter Goodman is the Rockies' most dangerous bat against tonight's Cardinal starter: an .868 OPS against left-handed pitching this season across 164 plate appearances, 23rd of 148 NL batters with at least 60 PA against left-handers, down only slightly from .898 in 2025 -- plus a home run in his two career at-bats against Liberatore.

Watch: Alec Burleson enters tonight in a slump -- a .471 OPS across 61 plate appearances since August 19 -- while Jordan Walker is not: he has settled from a 1.136 OPS through mid-April to an .811 since, still above the league average of .731. Adams's walk rate sets up the at-bats both need. Walker's 2026 RISP line of 1.008 OPS across 178 plate appearances and Burleson's .922 OPS with runners in scoring position across 180 plate appearances mean the Cardinals' run-manufacturing leverage concentrates in those two spots if the lineup can work counts and reach base early.

Matthew Liberatore TTO3 Cliff. Matthew Liberatore has pitched into a third pass in 24 of 27 starts. In those 24 starts, hitters posted a .665 OPS in the second pass (216 PA) and 1.124 OPS in the third pass (108 PA) -- a .459-OPS swing within the same games, where the league-wide change between those two passes runs about .031. Both figures come from the same 24 starts, so the gap is a clean within-game read.

Matthew Liberatore Home/Away -- Coors as Road. Liberatore's 2026 road ERA is 4.93, compared with 5.87 at home, and his road OPS-against is .766 against .868 at home -- he has been stronger away from Busch Stadium.

Matthew Liberatore vs. Colorado's Left-Heavy Lineup. Liberatore's 2026 OPS-against is .861 across 147 left-handed batters faced and .807 across 442 right-handed batters faced -- right-handed hitters are his stronger side. Colorado's lineup sends five left-handed bats at him: Jake McCarthy, Mickey Moniak, TJ Rumfield, Troy Johnston, and Zac Veen. Three of them are weaker against left-handed pitching this season -- Rumfield .801 OPS against lefties versus .862 against righties, Johnston .596 versus .818, Moniak .566 versus .843 -- so the left-on-left matchup does take something off those three. McCarthy is the exception: .865 against left-handers, .787 against right-handers, so facing Liberatore costs him nothing. Separately, Rumfield (.938 OPS across 145 PA), McCarthy (.896 across 130 PA) and Johnston (.878 across 111 PA) have been the Rockies' best hitters with runners in scoring position.

-- Matthew Liberatore. Liberatore has pitched into a third pass in 24 of 27 starts. If he reaches the lineup a third time tonight, the in-game trigger is immediate: his third-pass OPS allowed climbs to 1.124 against a .665 mark in the second pass of those same starts. Watch whether Oliver Marmol pulls him at the first sign of third-pass trouble or lets the Rockies' lineup cycle through.

-- Jake McCarthy. If McCarthy reaches base, watch the running game against Leo Bernal, who has allowed 2 stolen bases against 0 caught stealings in his 3 games behind the plate this season -- a sample too small to rate. McCarthy has stolen 27 bases at an 84.4% success rate (27 for 32) in 2026, well above the 72.0% break-even threshold.

-- Nolan Gorman. If Adams continues walking batters at his 2026 rate, Gorman's 2026 walk rate of 10.2% -- above the 8.9% league average -- makes him a candidate to reach base without putting the ball in play. The trigger: does a free pass to Gorman, who strikes out in 32.8% of plate appearances, translate to a manufactured threat, or does the lineup strand him?

-- Hunter Goodman. If the Cardinals test the running game, Goodman has allowed 64 stolen bases against 13 caught stealings (16.9% CS rate) across 77 attempts this season. Watch whether St. Louis baserunners target him early in counts when Liberatore is working from the stretch.