| ||||||
|
YESTERDAY'S RESULT--STL 6, OAK 4
STL 4 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 -- 6
OAK 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -- 4
Cardinals hung a four-spot in the top of the first on RBI knocks from Walker, Fermín (a 2-RBI double), and Pozo. Oakland answered with a Langeliers two-run double in the second to make it 4-3. JJ Wetherholt's two-run homer in the sixth restored the cushion. Pallante grinded to 5.0 IP (4 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 4 K); Romero and Stanek bridged cleanly before a Langeliers solo HR off Soriano in the eighth, but the pen closed it out.
| ||||||
|
PREDICTION GRADES
CORRECT -- Herrera reaches base: Herrera went 2-for-5 with 0 BB. 2 H + 0 BB = 2 reaches. Threshold 2+. 2 >= 2.
CORRECT -- Pallante walk total: Pallante issued 3 BB in 5.0 IP. Threshold 3+. 3 >= 3. WRONG -- OAK TTO2 scoring: Oakland posted 0 + 0 + 0 = 0 runs across innings 4-6. Threshold 2+. 0 < 2. CORRECT -- STL K total: Cardinals batters combined for 9 K (Wetherholt 1, Walker 1, Burleson 1, Scott 1, Pozo 1, Church 2, Saggese 2). Threshold 8+. 9 >= 8. CORRECT -- Kurtz reaches base: Kurtz went 1-for-3 with 1 BB. 1 H + 1 BB = 2 reaches. Threshold 2+. 2 >= 2. Hit rate: 4/5 (80%) | ||||||
|
BOTTOM LINE
Edge: Ginn's 2026 walks tell. 15 BB in 37.1 IP with a 10.0% BB% gives a patient top of the order chances early -- Burleson is .296/.353/.478 vs RHP in 2025 and Herrera is .268/.343/.399. The Cardinals do not need to hunt; they need to take.
Threat: Shea Langeliers vs LHP in 2025: .367/.374/.667 with 10 HR in 123 PA. He is OAK's clearest answer to a Liberatore lineup, and he homered last night off Soriano to keep his bat hot. Watch: Liberatore's second pass through the order. 2025: .310 AVG / .511 SLG / .871 OPS, against a TTO1 line of .237 / .376 / .657. Innings 4-6 are the kill zone -- if Liberatore is still in, OAK's middle order gets their best look. | ||||||
|
KEY MATCHUPS
Alec Burleson vs Ginn. Burleson is .296/.353/.478 vs RHP in 2025 (419 PA), with 15 HR and a 14.5% K%. Against a Ginn who walks 10.0% in 2026, the third spot has the discipline to push deep counts and the slug to punish a missed strike.
Shea Langeliers vs Liberatore. Langeliers is .367/.374/.667 with 10 HR vs LHP in 2025 (123 PA) and is 2-for-6 lifetime against Liberatore in BvP. The single biggest power threat in the OAK order runs through this matchup.
Nolan Gorman vs Ginn (lefty bat vs ground-ball righty). Gorman is .201 vs RHP in 2025 with a 33.8% K% and a 30.2% GB rate -- the lift-and-pull profile is the opposite of what plays against Ginn's 56.6% 2026 GB%. He is the lineup's strikeout risk against a sinker-leaning righty.
| ||||||
|
WATCHLIST
-- Liberatore second pass. 2025 TTO2 .310 AVG / .511 SLG / .871 OPS is the danger band. Hook-or-stretch decision likely comes around innings 4-6.
-- Rooker leverage spot. .293/.385/.500 vs LHP in 2025 (161 PA). High-leverage at-bats against Liberatore are the second domino if Langeliers gets on.
-- JoJo Romero bridge. 88.5% 2025 strand rate on 26 inherited runners is the cleanest exit valve in the pen if the Liberatore TTO2 inning gets messy.
-- Wetherholt momentum. 2-for-4 with HR, 1 BB, 2 R yesterday. He leads off against a RHP starter who walks 10.0% in 2026 -- expect long PAs.
|
Liberatore's Second-Pass Cliff: Why Innings 4-6 Decide STL at Oakland
May 13, 2026
•
2 min read