STL (40-31) Game 3 of 3 -- Busch Stadium -- 1:15 PM CT SD (37-35)
Leahy (R) -- 4.64 ERA Wednesday, June 17, 2026 TBD () -- -- ERA
YESTERDAY'S RESULT -- STL 3, SD 2
SD   0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 -- 2
STL  0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 -- 3
Cardinals built a 2-0 lead in the bottom of the 2nd on Blaze Jordan's RBI double and Nathan Church's RBI single, then added insurance in the 5th when Lars Nootbaar's sacrifice fly drove in Ivan Herrera. Andre Pallante carried it through 7 strong innings (4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 6 K) before Ryne Stanek and Riley O'Brien closed it. JJ Wetherholt led the offense (3-for-4, 1 BB, 1 SB).
PREDICTION GRADES
CORRECT -- Padres TTO2 scoring: Padres scored 1 R in inning 5 (France RBI single, Taylor scored) and 1 R in inning 6 (Merrill RBI double, Tatis scored) = 2 R in innings 4-6. Threshold: 2+. 2 >= 2.

WRONG -- Machado reaches base: Machado went 0-for-3 with 1 BB. Reaches: 0 H + 1 BB = 1. Threshold: 2+. 1 < 2.

WRONG -- Burleson reaches base: Burleson went 1-for-5 with 0 BB. Reaches: 1 H + 0 BB = 1. Threshold: 2+. 1 < 2.

WRONG -- Cardinals K total: Cardinals batters combined for 3 K (Walker 1, Nootbaar 1, Crooks 1). Threshold: 8+. 3 < 8.

CORRECT -- Pallante walk discipline: Pallante issued 0 BB in 7.0 IP. Threshold: 2 or fewer. 0 <= 2.

Hit rate: 2/5 (40%)
BOTTOM LINE
Edge: Leahy's 2025 platoon split favors his right-handed work -- .238 / .270 / .319 against RHB (.589 OPS) versus .252 / .337 / .364 against LHB (.701 OPS). The Padres' active-roster pool today is 9 RHB and 4 LHB, which leans Leahy's stronger hand.

Threat: Manny Machado carries the only positive BvP signal off Leahy -- 3 PA, 1 H, .333 / .333 / .667 in the career sample. His 2025 line vs RHP (.279 / .332 / .440, 15 HR) makes him the danger bat to game-plan around.

Watch: The second pass through the order. Leahy's career sample concentrates in TTO1 (355 PA, .247 AVG, .341 SLG, 76 K); his TTO2 sample is just 8 PA. If the Padres push him past one turn through, the report is operating outside its data window.
KEY MATCHUPS
Machado vs Leahy. The lone meaningful BvP entry against the starter -- 3 PA, 1 H, double (.333 / .333 / .667). Across 2025 vs RHP: .279 / .332 / .440 with 15 HR. Limit free bases here; one mistake-pitch is the swing of the at-bat.
Walker vs RHP. Walker's 2025 vs RHP line is .200 / .263 / .291 with 94 K in 289 PA and a 31.8% strikeout rate overall. He bats cleanup today, but the right-on-right matchup is the Cardinals' softest spot in the order.
Crooks behind the plate. Jimmy Crooks starts at C today. His career pairing with Leahy is 4 G, 6.1 IP, 8.53 ERA -- a tiny but uncomfortable sample. Pedro Pages (43 G, 62.0 IP, 3.05 ERA) is the deepest pairing but is not in the lineup. Fresh battery sequencing is a quiet signal.
WATCHLIST
-- Leahy at home. 4.47 ERA at Busch (190 BF, 44.1 IP) versus 2.68 on the road (173 BF, 43.2 IP). Nearly a run and a half of separation -- the road profile is clearly his stronger context.
-- Bullpen fork. Romero 88.5% strand (26 IR, 3 scored) is the trust arm out of the pen. Svanson 50.0% and Roycroft 41.7% are well under league average (~68-72%). Which arm enters with runners on decides the middle innings.
-- Tatis and Bogaerts on the bases. Tatis is 32-for-39 (82.1%) and Bogaerts is 20-for-22 (90.9%) on stolen-base attempts. With Crooks making the start behind an unfamiliar battery, both are live threats once on.
-- Wetherholt at the top. Coming off a 3-for-4, 1 BB, 1 SB game. Projected leadoff for the second straight day -- watch for the early-count attack to set the tone against an unknown opposing starter.

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