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YESTERDAY'S RESULT--STL 4, PIT 2
PIT 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -- 2
STL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 -- 4
Shut out for eight innings, the Cardinals erupted for four runs in the ninth to flip a 2-0 deficit. Pages homered to lead off, Wetherholt followed with a solo shot, and Fermin's two-run double off Santana plated Scott and Burleson. May went 6.0 IP, 7 H, 2 ER on the line, with Fernandez (2.0 IP, 4 K) bridging to Soriano. Cardinals lead the series 1-0.
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PREDICTION GRADES
WRONG -- Ozuna reaches base 2+ times: Ozuna went 0-for-4 with 0 BB and 0 HBP. 0 reaches, needed 2+.
INCONCLUSIVE -- Cruz attempts a stolen base: Oneil Cruz did not appear in the Pirates batting line; prediction rolled over from a prior report. WRONG -- May allows 3+ ER: May line was 6.0 IP, 2 ER. 2 < 3. WRONG -- Cardinals draw 4+ walks: Team BB total was 2 (Herrera 1, Walker 1). 2 < 4. WRONG -- PIT scores 2+ in innings 4-6: Pirates linescore innings 4-6 was 0+0+0 = 0. 0 < 2. Hit rate: 0/4 (0%) -- inconclusive predictions excluded from denominator. | ||||||
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BOTTOM LINE
Edge: Leahy is a different pitcher on the road. His career home/away split is 2.68 ERA in 43.2 IP away vs 4.47 ERA in 44.1 IP at home -- nearly two full runs of separation. PNC tilts in his favor, and his 2025 platoon line vs RHB (.238/.270/.319, .557 OPS) lines up against a Pirates roster pool that runs 7 RHB / 4 LHB / 2 SHB.
Threat: Brandon Lowe is the platoon outlier in this lineup pool. His 2025 line vs RHP is .280/.335/.538 with 26 HR in 406 PA -- the only PIT bat with both elite power and contact ability against right-handers. If Lowe gets stretched into a third pass at Leahy, that is the at-bat to script around. Watch: Leahy's career TTO sample is almost entirely TTO1 (355 PA) with only 8 PA at TTO2. He is a short-burst arm, and the data has essentially nothing to say about how he holds up in a third pass through the order. If the Pirates work counts early, the bullpen fork comes early. | ||||||
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KEY MATCHUPS
Leahy vs the PIT LHB cluster. Lowe, Cruz, O'Hearn, and Horwitz form a four-deep LHB block on the Pirates roster pool. Leahy's 2025 vs LHB line (.252/.337/.364) gives up the bulk of his walks (19 BB in 163 PA, 11.7%). The walk rate matters more than the AVG against this group.
Cardinals batters facing TBD. The opponent starter has not been named in the JSON. The Pirates burned eight relievers across 8.0+ IP yesterday, with Dotel covering 4.0 IP (3 K). Whoever opens tonight, the Pirates pen depth was taxed.
Herrera-Leahy battery. Tonight's catcher is Herrera (lineup #2). With Leahy in the dataset he has 4 G / 3.0 IP and a 6.00 ERA -- a tiny sample but a fresh battery vs the Pages pairing (43 G, 62.0 IP, 3.05 ERA). Pop-time and signal sequencing are unsettled, which matters in a lineup that runs.
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WATCHLIST
-- Cruz/Mangum running game. Cruz 38 SB / 5 CS career (88.4%); Mangum 27 SB / 6 CS (81.8%). Herrera-Leahy is a 4-game battery -- caught-stealing arm is untested in this pairing.
-- Leahy 2026-to-date vs 2025 baseline. 2026 to date: 5.63 ERA, 13.5 K%, 9.9 BB%, 64.2 GB% in 24 IP. 2025 baseline: 22.0 K%, 7.7 BB%, 44.2 GB%. The K rate has cratered while the GB rate has spiked -- pitcher is throwing more contact, less swing-and-miss.
-- TTO2 cliff. Only 8 career TTO2 PA. Out-of-sample territory once the order flips a second time.
-- Inherited-runner bullpen fork. Romero 88.5% career strand vs Svanson 50.0%. Whoever gets the call with men on decides middle innings.
-- Burleson vs RHP. .296/.353/.478 in 419 PA -- the Cardinals' best LHB anchor against right-handers. Whoever Pittsburgh runs out, Burleson gets the platoon edge.
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Leahy on the Road: Where the Splits Favor Game 2 in PNC
Apr 28, 2026
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5 min read