Leahy on the Road: 2.68 Away ERA Meets San Diego's Right-Handed Wall

STL  0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 -- 2
SD   0 0 0 0 3 0 0 1 0 -- 4

May went 6.0 IP with 7 K but the 5th inning broke open -- a France HR plus a Tatis 2-RBI single did the damage. STL scratched two on RBI doubles by Church (4th) and Herrera (8th) before Machado's 8th-inning HR off Svanson sealed it. SD takes the series 3-1 pending today's finale.

PREDICTION GRADES

WRONG -- Machado reaches base: Machado went 1 H + 0 BB = 1 reach. Threshold 2+. 1 < 2.

WRONG -- May walk total: May issued 2 BB in 6.0 IP. Threshold 3+. 2 < 3.

CORRECT -- STL K total: Cardinals batters combined for 12 K. Threshold 8+. 12 >= 8.

CORRECT -- SD TTO2 scoring: Padres scored 3 runs in innings 4-6 (linescore 0/3/0). Threshold 2+. 3 >= 2.

WRONG -- Burleson reaches base: Burleson went 0 H + 0 BB = 0 reaches. Threshold 2+. 0 < 2.

Hit rate: 2/5 (40%)

BOTTOM LINE

Edge: Leahy on the road into a heavy RHB pool. The Padres roster pool is 9 RHB / 3 LHB and Leahy's 2025 line vs RHB is .238 / .270 / .319 / .589 OPS. Add a 2.68 2025 away ERA vs 4.47 home and the splits stack toward a strong outing.

Threat: Manny Machado. He homered yesterday and carries a 1-for-3 BvP vs Leahy with 1 K. 2025 vs RHP: .279 / .332 / .440 with a 19.3% K%. He will not strike himself out.

Watch: Leahy's second pass through the order is unmapped -- only 8 PA in 2025 (.125 / .250 / .375). Innings 4-6 are where the game gets defined; the unknown is whether Leahy holds up after the SD lineup gets a first look.

-- Buehler TTO1 power. .279 / .452 / .816 OPS in 2025 first pass through the order, 9 HR in 236 PA. Innings 1-3 are when his slug allowed peaks.

-- Leahy TTO2 unmapped. Only 8 PA in 2025 second pass through the order vs 355 PA in TTO1. The smallest sample on the report -- innings 4-6 will write that line.

-- Bullpen fork. Romero 88.5% strand on 26 IR vs Svanson 50.0% on 26 IR in 2025. Whichever arm enters with traffic decides whether STL holds a lead or loses one.