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BOTTOM LINE
Edge: Kirby on the road. His 2025 away ERA (4.97 in 63.1 IP) runs more than a full run higher than home (3.79), and his TTO3 line is .327 / .645 / .972 OPS with 9 HR in 117 PA. If Cardinals bats force a third pass, the crack opens.
Threat: Cal Raleigh. 42 HR in 2025, 13.8% BB, and a 29.4% GB / 47.3% FB profile that does not fit Pallante's 61.2% ground-ball game. Pallante's 2025 home ERA (5.42) is already his worst split -- Raleigh is the bat most likely to punish a mistake at Busch. Watch: Pallante's TTO2. Innings 4-6 were his 2025 weak pass -- .309 AVG, .796 OPS, 8 HR in 270 PA. With Romero (88.5% strand) vs Svanson (50.0% strand) behind him, which bullpen arm inherits any TTO2 traffic decides the middle of this game. | ||||||
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KEY MATCHUPS
Burleson vs Kirby. 2-for-5 lifetime BvP with no strikeouts, and a 2025 .296/.353/.478 line vs RHP across 419 PA. The best LHB ticket through Kirby's slightly softer vs-LHB split (.697 vs .626 OPS).
Kirby TTO3 cliff. 2025 OPS jumps from .541 (TTO2) to .972 (TTO3) with 9 HR in 117 PA. If he reaches the order a third time at Busch, every at-bat is a leverage swing.
Raleigh power risk. 42 HR and 13.8% BB in 2025. His 47.3% FB rate meets Pallante's 61.2% GB profile -- the one Mariners bat whose contact shape fights Pallante's stuff.
Mariners running game. Arozarena (31 SB), Naylor (30 SB, 93.8% success), and Rodríguez (30 SB) each stole 30+ in 2025. Herrera's pop time will be tested as soon as any of the three reach first.
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WATCHLIST
-- Kirby TTO3 window. .327 / .645 / .972 OPS with 9 HR in 117 PA (2025) is the exploitable crack. Watch inning 6-7 leverage.
-- Pallante at Busch. 5.42 2025 home ERA across 78.0 IP, worse than his road split. He does not get a venue lift.
-- Romero vs Svanson inherited-runner fork. 88.5% strand vs 50.0% strand in 2025. Which arm walks into traffic decides middle innings.
-- Walker whiff risk. 2025 K% of 31.8 against Kirby's 26.1% 2025 K% profile -- the 4-hole is the contact vulnerability.
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Kirby's TTO3 Crack: .327 / .645 in 2025 Opens the Late-Innings Door
Apr 24, 2026
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3 min read