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BOTTOM LINE
Edge: Kelly is carrying a 5.38 ERA and 1.51 WHIP through 93.2 IP in 2026, and his 2025 slugging allowed to LHB was .428 with 17 HR in 399 PA -- a real power lane against a Cardinals lineup that carries six left-handed bats. Burleson (.296 vs RHP in 2025) and Nootbaar (2-for-9 with a HR and 2 BB against Kelly in the career sample) headline the L-side attack.
Threat: Perdomo (.341/.416/.486 vs LHP in 2025) is a switch bat with elite plate discipline (13.1% BB, 11.5% K), and Arenado sits at .294 vs LHP in 2025 with a .560 AVG on line drives in the career sample. Whichever arm the Cardinals run out has to work through the top of Arizona's order without free passes -- Perdomo doesn't chase. Watch: Kelly's third pass through the order in 2025 -- TTO3 line jumps to .296/.494/.827 after a .200/.208 batting average through the first and second passes. If Arizona lets him work into a third pass at 7+ innings, the middle-of-order Cardinals bats get their best swings of the night. | ||||||
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KEY MATCHUPS
Nootbaar vs Kelly. 11 PA career: .222/.364/.556 with a HR and 2 BB. Small sample, but Nootbaar's L-swing has already found Kelly's arm-side FB once. He also carries a .249/.340/.394 line vs RHP in 2025 -- steady contact, walk-inclined profile.
Burleson vs Kelly. 9 PA career: .125/.222/.125, but the season profile is different -- .296/.353/.478 vs RHP in 2025 with 15 HR in 419 PA. Burleson's .346 AVG with RISP in 2026 is a live path in run-scoring innings.
Perdomo vs LHP. .341/.416/.486 vs LHP in 2025 across 219 PA -- 6 HR, 26 BB, 15 K. On-base machine at the top of Arizona's order; can turn a Cardinals lefty into a walk-and-slug problem if that arm gets used.
Walker vs Kelly. 9 PA career: .143/.333/.286 with 2 BB and 3 K. Walker's 2025 vs RHP line is .200/.263/.291 with 94 K in 289 PA -- his 31.8% K rate in 2025 is the biggest whiff signal in the Cardinals lineup vs a 22.3% K starter.
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WATCHLIST
-- Kelly's third pass window. 2025 TTO3 line .296/.494/.827 in 171 PA vs .200/.208 through the first and second passes. Cardinals want him past pitch 75 with the middle of the order due up.
-- Cardinals bullpen fork. Romero 88.5% strand vs Svanson 50.0% on the year -- who enters with runners on decides the middle innings.
-- Carroll's speed. 32 SB / 6 CS (84.2%) in 2025. With Cardinals starter TBD, whichever arm gets the ball has to hold Carroll if he reaches early. Crooks at C is the counter -- clean fielding sample but limited career battery data.
-- STL contact discipline. Walker 31.8% K and Crooks 37.0% K in 2025 are the whiff outliers against a 22.3% K starter. Nootbaar 20.4% and Burleson 14.5% are the contact ballast.
-- LHB power lane on Kelly. 17 HR allowed to LHB in 2025 (399 PA) vs 6 HR to RHB (349 PA). Six of Cardinals' nine projected bats hit from the left side.
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Kelly's Third-Time Cliff: Chase Field, TTO3 .296/.494/.827
Jul 17, 2026
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2 min read