| ||||||
|
YESTERDAY'S RESULT -- STL 17, CHC 1
STL 0 3 3 5 3 2 1 0 0 -- 17
CHC 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 -- 1
Cardinals broke the Cubs open early against David Peterson (3.2 IP, 10 ER) and never let up. Church (2 H, HR, 3 RBI), Winn (2 H, HR, 4 RBI), and Burleson (2 H, 4 RBI) drove the middle innings; Herrera reached 4 times (3 H, BB, 3 R) at the top. Pallante went 5.2 shutout innings on 5 H and 1 BB with 2 K -- the lone Cubs run came off Rajcic in the 7th on a Bregman RBI double. STL takes Game 1 of the series.
| ||||||
|
PREDICTION GRADES
CORRECT -- STL K total: Cardinals batters combined for 7 K (Walker 2, Wetherholt/Winn/Fermin/Jordan/Church 1 each). Threshold: 5+. 7 >= 5.
WRONG -- Wetherholt reaches base: 1 H + 0 BB = 1 reach. Needed 2+. WRONG -- Busch reaches base: 1 H + 0 BB = 1 reach. Needed 2+. WRONG -- CHC innings 4-6 scoring: Cubs scored 0 runs in innings 4-6 (linescore 0/0/0). Needed 2+. WRONG -- Pallante walk trouble: Pallante issued 1 BB in 5.2 IP. Needed 2+. Hit rate: 1/5 (20%) | ||||||
|
BOTTOM LINE
Edge: Leahy on the road. Kyle Leahy carries a 2.68 ERA over 43.2 IP away from Busch with a 46/13 K/BB and just 2 HR allowed -- compared to a 4.47 ERA and 3 HR in 44.1 home innings. Wrigley suits him, and a 44.2% career GB rate against a Cubs lineup that runs 34.6% to 45.7% GB across the projected order keeps the ball on the dirt.
Threat: Michael Busch's 2025 profile. Busch owns a .272/.358/.563 slash vs RHP over 517 PA (33 HR) in his 2025 sample and is 2-for-5 with a .600 SLG against Leahy in the career BvP sample. In a Wrigley left-handed power spot against a righty starter, Busch is the one bat Leahy has to work around. Watch: Imanaga's first pass through the order. Shota Imanaga allowed 19 HR in 245 PA during the first pass in his 2025 sample (.502 SLG, .771 OPS), then tightens -- .678 OPS TTO2, .610 OPS TTO3. Cardinals need to hunt fastballs in innings 1-3 or he'll settle in. | ||||||
|
KEY MATCHUPS
Winn vs Imanaga. Masyn Winn is 4-for-12 with a HR in the career BvP sample against Imanaga -- the Cardinals' deepest sample on tonight's starter. He is one of only three RHB in the projected order and Imanaga posts a .729 OPS-against vs RHB in his 2025 platoon sample (30 HR in 438 PA). Winn is the primary right-handed lever early.
Herrera vs LHP. Iván Herrera slashed .330/.455/.660 vs LHP in his 2025 sample (124 PA, 9 HR) -- best Cardinals bat in the platoon lookup. His 1-for-6 career BvP sample against Imanaga is thin, but the season profile is the tell against a left-hander tonight.
Busch vs Leahy. Michael Busch is 2-for-5 with a .600 SLG in the career BvP sample vs Leahy and slashed .272/.358/.563 with 33 HR vs RHP in his 2025 sample. Leahy runs a .364 SLG-against vs LHB in his 2025 platoon sample -- generally sturdy, but Busch is the exception to game-plan around.
| ||||||
|
WATCHLIST
-- Leahy second pass through the order. Leahy has just 8 PA in his 2025 TTO2 bucket (.125 AVG, .375 OPS). Sample is too thin to characterize -- if he reaches innings 4-6 with a starter's line, the bullpen bridge decisions are made without a data anchor.
-- Crooks-Leahy battery. Jimmy Crooks has caught just 6.1 IP with a Cardinals starter this season (8.53 ERA in that sample). Fresh signal-calling context with tonight's starter -- watch pop times and glove-side setups in the first pass through the order.
-- Cubs speed threat. Pete Crow-Armstrong (35 SB, 81.4% success) and Nico Hoerner (29 SB, 82.9%) sit atop the Cubs' baserunning profile. With Crooks unfamiliar with Leahy's release, runners will test the battery early.
|
Imanaga Gets Sharper Each Time Through: Cardinals Have Three Innings to Damage Him
Jul 4, 2026
•
2 min read