STL (52-51) Game 2 of 3 -- Busch Stadium -- 6:15 PM CT CIN (48-54)
Pallante (R) -- 4.02 ERA Saturday, July 25, 2026 Greene (R) -- 6.06 ERA
YESTERDAY'S RESULT -- CIN 4, STL 2
CIN  0 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 1 -- 4
STL  0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 -- 2
Dustin May was excellent -- 6.0 IP, 7H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 8K. Blaze Jordan's two-run double in the 5th briefly gave the Cardinals a 2-1 lead. But George Soriano surrendered Eugenio Suarez's two-run homer (14) in the 7th to flip the lead, and Luis Gastelum allowed the final run in the 9th on a Sal Stewart single. The Cardinals absorbed an untimely loss despite a quality start from May.
PREDICTION GRADES
CORRECT -- May 5+ innings: May pitched 6.0 IP. Threshold: 5.0+. 6.0 >= 5.0.

CORRECT -- Cardinals 7+ strikeouts: Cardinals batters combined for 9 strikeouts. Threshold: 7+. 9 >= 7.

CORRECT -- Lowe 2+ reaches: Lowe: 2 H + 0 BB = 2 reaches. Threshold: 2+. 2 >= 2.

CORRECT -- Suarez 1+ hit: Suarez recorded 2 H in 4 AB. Threshold: 1+. 2 >= 1.

WRONG -- Burleson 1+ RBI: Burleson had 0 RBI in 4 AB. Threshold: 1+.

Hit rate: 4/5 (80%)
BOTTOM LINE
Edge: Greene pitches away tonight -- his 2025 road ERA is 4.58 in 39.1 IP vs 1.58 at home in 68.1 IP. Jordan Walker is 4-for-7 (.571/.625/.714 career) against Greene in 8 PA. With Greene in his demonstrably more vulnerable road context, tonight's early innings carry more offensive upside than his season-line 6.06 ERA suggests.

Threat: Eugenio Suarez homered last night and carries a 2025 vs-RHP line of .252/.313/.552 with 36 HR in 473 PA. Pallante's 2025 home ERA is 5.42 and his second pass through the order (TTO2) carries a .309 AVG and .868 OPS in 270 PA. The Reds' power core cycling through in innings 4-6 is the primary danger window.

Watch: Pallante's TTO2 second pass (.309/.868 OPS) is tonight's flashpoint. If runners reach in innings 4-6, the Cardinals' bullpen split matters: O'Brien strands at 70.0% (10 IR), but Svanson is at 50.0% (26 IR entries) and Graceffo at 54.5% (11 IR entries) -- both well below the 68.8% league average. Who pitches with runners on in that window decides the margin.
KEY MATCHUPS
Jordan Walker vs Hunter Greene. Walker is 4-for-7 (.571/.625/.714) in 8 career PA -- the Cardinals' only batter with a meaningful BvP edge against Greene. His 2025 vs-RHP line (.200/.263/.291, 289 PA) sets a low floor, but Greene's 4.58 road ERA tonight and Walker's historical production make this the Cardinals' best individual matchup on the card.
Nathaniel Lowe vs Andre Pallante. Lowe is 3-for-9 (.333/.400/.667) with a career HR against Pallante in 10 PA. His 2025 vs-RHP approach (10.2% BB, 26.1% K, .252/.333/.429, 438 PA) makes him a consistent on-base threat. The second pass through the order is when Lowe will typically see Pallante again -- and Pallante's TTO2 (.309/.868) is exactly that window.
Eugenio Suarez vs Pallante at home. Suarez has only 3 career PA against Pallante (.333), too few to project from. The operative data is his 2025 vs-RHP power: 36 HR, .552 SLG in 473 PA. Pallante's 2025 home ERA is 5.42 and his FB rate allowed is 18.3%. Suarez's 2025 FB rate is 41.4% -- when he elevates, he reaches the outfield rather than the infield.
WATCHLIST
-- Pallante TTO2 danger zone. Pallante's second pass through the order carries a .309 AVG and .868 OPS in his 2025 sample (270 PA), compared to .266/.720 in the first pass and .217/.691 in the third. The Reds' power core cycles through in innings 4-6. If Pallante exits with runners on in that window, the bullpen decision carries real consequence.
-- Running game vs Crooks. The Reds have multiple active baserunning threats: Myers (18 SB, 78.3% success), Friedl (12 SB, 80.0%), Hayes (12 SB, 80.0%), and Marte (10 SB, 76.9%). Jimmy Crooks is projected behind the plate with 14 games of catching experience in this season's sample. The Reds should identify tonight as a running game spot.
-- Bullpen IR split. Riley O'Brien strands at 70.0% (10 IR) -- above the 68.8% league benchmark. Matt Svanson is at 50.0% (26 IR entries) and Gordon Graceffo at 54.5% (11 IR entries), both substantially below the league mark. Which arm enters with runners on in the middle innings carries different run-prevention outcomes.

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