Herrera Hits .330 vs LHP. He Faces One Tonight.

CIN  0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 3 -- 5
STL  0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 -- 3

Kyle Leahy threw 6.0 innings with 9 strikeouts and 2 ER, keeping STL in a 2-2 tie through regulation. Svanson surrendered 3 runs in the top of the 10th and Burleson's RBI single in the bottom half was not enough -- the Cardinals fell 5-3, dropping the Cincinnati series 2-of-3.

WHAT WORKED / WHAT DIDN'T

WHAT WORKED

• Leahy: 6.0 IP, 9 K, 2 ER -- a quality start that kept STL in a tie game through the ninth.
• Ivan Herrera: 2-for-5, solo HR (12) in the 3rd -- gave STL a 2-1 lead entering the fifth.
• Burleson: 3-for-5, RBI single in the 10th to score STL's final run.
• Gastelum, Stanek, Soriano: 3.0 scoreless IP combined in the 7th-9th innings.

WHAT DIDN'T

• Svanson: 0.1 IP, 3 R (2 ER) in the 10th -- three runs on two singles ended STL's extra-inning chance.
• Wetherholt and Walker: combined 0-for-10 at the plate.
• STL offense: 1 run in the 10th despite having the last at-bat in a tied game.

BOTTOM LINE

EDGE: Peterson is a LHP facing 6 LHBs in tonight's projected Cardinals lineup. His 2025 platoon splits show .743 OPS against RHBs and .564 OPS against LHBs. The 3 right-handed bats -- Herrera, Walker, Winn -- are tonight's primary offensive path.

THREAT: Peterson's 55.4% groundball rate pairs against a Cardinals lineup heavy with groundball hitters. Herrera (52.6% GB) and Walker (48.9% GB) are the profile-match bats -- his strength suppresses extra-base production from these two.

WATCH: Peterson's first pass through the order yielded .623 OPS in 2025; his second pass was .734 OPS. If STL can keep the game within reach, the second and third time through the order are the prime scoring windows to target.

Ivan Herrera (DH, R) vs David Peterson (LHP)

No career BvP history. Herrera hit .330/.455/.660 in 124 PA vs LHP in 2025 -- the top split in tonight's projected Cardinals lineup. His right-handed bat is where Peterson allows the most damage (.743 OPS vs RHBs in 2025).

Nico Hoerner (CHC) vs TBD Cardinals Starter

Hoerner hit .369/.396/.539 in 149 PA vs LHP in 2025 -- the strongest split in tonight's Cubs roster pool. His 7.6% career K% makes him the hardest out in tonight's Chicago lineup regardless of the Cardinals starter.

Jordan Walker (RF, R) vs David Peterson (LHP)

Walker's 2025 line vs LHP: .255/.318/.347 in 107 PA. In 2026 he has .297 AVG and .918 OPS in 115 PA vs LHP -- a notable improvement against lefties. Career vs Peterson: 1-for-2 (small sample).

● PETERSON TTO2 WINDOW: Peterson's second pass through the order yielded .734 OPS in 261 PA in 2025, up from .623 OPS in the first pass. If STL can keep the game close, the second-pass window is the prime scoring opportunity.

● CUBS BASERUNNING: Crow-Armstrong (35 SB, 81.4%), Hoerner (29 SB, 82.9%), and Swanson (20 SB, 87.0%) are the top base-stealers in tonight's Cubs lineup. With a TBD Cardinals starter, stolen-base attempts are a live variable tonight.

● BULLPEN FORK: With no starter announced, the Cardinals bullpen carries a heavy workload. Svanson (7.23 ERA in 2026, 50.0% IR strand rate in 2025) and McGreevy (3.07 ERA, 114.1 IP in 2026) represent opposite outcomes in high-leverage spots.