Herrera .500 Career vs Abbott, Walker 0-for-12: The Series Decider at Busch

CIN  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -- 0
STL  1 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 -- 7

André Pallante delivered a complete-game quality outing: 7.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K. Gordon Graceffo closed out the final 2.0 IP. The Cardinals scored once in the 1st (Burleson RBI single) then erupted for 6 in the 6th: Iván Herrera doubled to score two, Bryan Torres singled to score Herrera, and Blaze Jordan singled to score two more. Nathan Church added an RBI sac bunt. Alec Burleson went 3-for-4. Series tied 1-1.

PREDICTION GRADES

WRONG -- Cardinals 8+ strikeouts: Cardinals batters totaled 6 K (Wetherholt 1, Walker 1, Burleson 1, Herrera 1, Winn 1, Church 1). Threshold was 8+. 6 < 8.

CORRECT -- Walker 1+ hit: Jordan Walker went 2-for-4. Threshold: 1+ hit. 2 >= 1.

INCONCLUSIVE -- Lowe 2+ reaches: Nathaniel Lowe did not appear in the Reds lineup; prediction rolled over from a prior report.

WRONG -- Reds score in innings 4-6: Reds were shut out (0 runs total). No Reds scoring plays in innings 4-6.

WRONG -- Greene 6+ strikeouts: Hunter Greene recorded 3 K in 5.1 IP. Threshold was 6+. 3 < 6.

Hit rate: 1/4 (25%) -- inconclusive predictions excluded from denominator.

BOTTOM LINE

Edge: Leahy is at his best against right-handed bats -- .238 AVG/.270 OBP/.319 SLG (OPS .589 vs RHB in 2025) -- and the Reds' roster pool sends 8 RHB at him today. Abbott arrives at Busch pitching away; his away ERA in 2025 is 3.32 vs a 2.19 home ERA. Ivan Herrera is 4-for-8 (.500 AVG, .556 OBP) career vs Abbott and posts a .330/.455/.660 line vs LHP in 2025 -- the Cardinals' clearest offensive weapon this afternoon.

Threat: Abbott held Jordan Walker 0-for-12 career (6 K in 12 AB) and Lars Nootbaar 1-for-12 (7 K). The Cardinals carry 6 LHB against a southpaw who held them to a combined .614 OPS vs left-handed bats in 2025. Walker's 2025 K% of 31.8% is the lineup's most exploitable swing-and-miss profile -- batting cleanup, he's the primary liability. Leahy pitches at home today, where his 2025 ERA is 4.47 vs 2.68 on the road.

Watch: Abbott's third pass through the order. His 2025 TTO3 line is .243/.286/.474 OPS .760 with 10 HR allowed in 161 PA -- a meaningful power spike relative to his first (.627 OPS) and second (.627 OPS) passes. If Abbott works into the later innings today, the Cardinals' third look at him is where the power upside concentrates.

-- Leahy at home (4.47 ERA vs 2.68 road). Leahy's 2025 home ERA is 4.47 in 44.1 IP at Busch; his road ERA is 2.68 in 43.2 IP. Today he pitches in his weaker context. If the Reds generate early baserunners, his strand rate of 62.1% (below league average ~68.8%) and the bullpen's mixed IR results (Svanson 50.0%, Graceffo 54.5%) make inherited-runner leakage a real outcome.

-- Dane Myers and TJ Friedl speed threat. Myers has 18 SB (78.3% success); Friedl has 12 SB (80.0%). Both get the platoon advantage against Leahy (LHB vs RHP). If either reaches base, Jimmy Crooks -- in only his 4th game receiving Leahy -- faces a live running read from two of the Reds' fastest players.

-- Abbott's third pass through the order (TTO3 watch). Abbott's 2025 TTO3 line is .243 AVG/.474 SLG/.760 OPS with 10 HR in 161 PA -- his most hittable window. His first (.627 OPS) and second (.627 OPS) passes are tighter. If he stays in long enough to face the Cardinals a third time this afternoon, the middle of the order is the power-upside window.