Gasser favors his home side but faces four Cardinals right-handed bats, led by Walker at .885 OPS against left-handed pitching

STL  1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -- 1
PIT  1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -- 2

Pittsburgh took the series finale yesterday afternoon, 2-1, and with it the three-game series, two games to one. Alec Burleson gave St. Louis the early lead with his 24th home run in the first inning, but the Cardinals managed just 5 hits in 31 at-bats. Brandon Lowe's first-inning single tied it, and Spencer Horwitz's eighth-inning sacrifice fly decided it.

THE BREAKDOWN

WHAT WORKED
- Alec Burleson homered (24) in the first inning to put St. Louis ahead 1-0.
- JJ Wetherholt went 2-for-4, accounting for two of the team's five hits.
- Cooper Hjerpe threw 3.1 innings of scoreless relief, allowing 3 hits with 3 strikeouts.

WHAT DIDN'T
- The offense went 5-for-31 with 2 walks -- one run on 31 at-bats against a Pittsburgh staff led by Paul Skenes (6.1 IP, 8 K).
- Ryne Stanek walked two in the eighth, and Ronny Simon scored the unearned go-ahead run on Spencer Horwitz's sacrifice fly to make it 2-1 Pittsburgh.
- Five Cardinals starters were held hitless; Leo Bernal struck out three times in four at-bats.

BOTTOM LINE

Edge: Jordan Walker is stronger against left-handed pitching this season: .885 OPS, compared with .767 against right-handers. Walker ranks 20th of 163 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances vs left-handed pitching in OPS (.885; league average .727), and he draws that matchup tonight against Robert Gasser.

Threat: Jake Bauers leads the NL in OBP this season at .393 (league average .323) and ranks 6th in OPS (.884; league average .728). He faces a right-hander tonight, his weaker side (.927 OPS against left-handers), yet his .868 OPS against right-handed pitching still ranks 18th of 230 NL batters in that split.

Watch: Alec Burleson enters tonight ranked 32nd of 172 NL hitters in OPS (.807; league average .728), but his 2026 line against left-handed pitching is .554 OPS -- 151st of 163 NL batters in that split -- compared with .924 against right-handers. He faces Gasser tonight.

Gasser vs Cardinals right-handed bats. Robert Gasser is stronger against left-handed batters this season: .574 OPS allowed, compared with .782 OPS allowed against right-handed batters. Jordan Walker, Iván Herrera, Masyn Winn, and Thomas Saggese -- all right-handed -- enter on that weaker side. Walker leads the group. Herrera ranks 42nd of 163 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances vs left-handed pitching in OPS (.820), and Winn 86th of 163 (.715; league average .727). Saggese's 2026 sample against left-handed pitching is 51 plate appearances, below the floor for a split grade; last season he ranked 131st of 181 2025 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances vs left-handed pitching in OPS (vs LHP) (.627; league average .702). His 2026 vs-right-handers mark is .592 OPS across 118 plate appearances (188th of 230 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances vs right-handed pitching).

McGreevy vs Brewers left-handed bats. Michael McGreevy allowed a .759 OPS to left-handed batters this season, compared with .669 to right-handed batters -- 143rd of 231 NL pitchers with at least 60 batters faced vs left-handed batters (league average .714). The Brewers carry seven left-handed hitters. Brice Turang ranks 12th of 230 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances vs right-handed pitching in OPS (vs RHP) (.896; league average .701). Christian Yelich ranks 102nd of 230 (.726), Garrett Mitchell 44th (.800). Jake Bauers bats left-handed, so he also lands on McGreevy's weaker side, though his own stronger split is against left-handers (.927 OPS vs LHP, 11th of 163). David Hamilton ranks 162nd of 230 vs right-handed pitching (.646). Bo Naylor's 2026 vs-right-handers mark is .449 OPS across 84 plate appearances (225th of 230).

McGreevy third-time-through exposure. Michael McGreevy has pitched into a third pass in 28 of 30 starts. His third-pass OPS allowed this season is .778, rising from .691 in the first pass and .732 in the second. Those third-pass figures come only from the 28 starts he was left in long enough to face the lineup a third time.

Gasser at home vs on the road. Robert Gasser is stronger at home this season: .689 OPS allowed, compared with .746 on the road. He pitches tonight at American Family Field, where he has posted a 3.62 ERA (84th of 195 NL pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched at home; league average 3.89), versus 4.36 ERA on the road (118th of 188 NL pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched on the road; league average 4.04).

-- Jordan Walker. If Walker sees elevated fastballs early in counts against Robert Gasser, watch whether he elevates: he ranks 15th of 172 NL hitters with at least 200 plate appearances in HR (28; league average 14.2), and tonight he bats on his stronger side.

-- Alec Burleson. If Burleson is moved or managed around in the lineup tonight, that is a sign the Cardinals are responding to his 2026 struggles against left-handed pitching, with a left-hander on the mound.

-- Michael McGreevy. If McGreevy reaches his third time through the Brewers' order, watch his pitch count and Oliver Marmol's hook: the third pass drives a higher OPS against him than the first or second, with Milwaukee's left-heavy lineup -- his weaker platoon side -- adding to that exposure.

-- David Hamilton / Jackson Chourio / Brice Turang. If any of the three reach base early, watch whether they test the Cardinals' catcher: Hamilton has stolen 30 bases in 36 attempts (83.3%) this season, Chourio 23 in 28 (82.1%), and Turang 19 in 24 (79.2%), forming a baserunning threat that could generate extra-base situations against McGreevy.