| ||||||
|
YESTERDAY'S RESULT -- ARI 9, STL 4
ARI 0 0 0 6 0 0 2 1 0 -- 9
STL 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 -- 4
Cardinals dropped Game 3 of the ARI series 9-4. Liberatore allowed 6 ER in 5.1 IP -- a Marte HR plus a Vargas RBI double and a Groover two-run HR keyed a six-run fourth -- and the late offense could not close the gap. Jose Fermin was the standout: 2-for-3 with a HR, a BB, an SB, and 3 R. Blaze Jordan added 3 RBI off the bench (RBI double, sac fly, RBI single).
| ||||||
|
PREDICTION GRADES
WRONG -- STL early scoring vs Bratt: Cardinals scored 0+1+0 = 1 run in innings 1-3. Threshold was 2+. 1 < 2.
WRONG -- Perdomo reaches base: Perdomo went 1-for-5 with 0 BB = 1 reach. Threshold was 2+. 1 < 2. CORRECT -- Marte RBI: Marte recorded 1 RBI on his 4th-inning HR. Threshold was 1+. 1 >= 1. CORRECT -- ARI TTO2 scoring: Diamondbacks scored 6+0+0 = 6 runs in innings 4-6. Threshold was 2+. 6 >= 2. WRONG -- Liberatore K total: Liberatore recorded 3 K in 5.1 IP. Threshold was 6+. 3 < 6. Hit rate: 2/5 (40%) | ||||||
|
BOTTOM LINE
Edge: Gallen carries a 6.10 ERA into tonight's start, including a 5.01 road ERA, and his 2025 vs-LHB line is .256/.326/.422 (.748 OPS). The Cardinals project six left-handed bats. Burleson (.296/.353/.478 vs RHP in 2025) and Nootbaar (.400/.625/1.000 in 8 PA vs Gallen, including a HR and 3 BB) headline the platoon advantage.
Threat: McGreevy at Busch has been a different pitcher -- 5.22 home ERA, .911 OPS allowed to LHB (.318/.368/.543). Carroll (.267/.354/.575 vs RHP in 2025 with 24 HR) is the single biggest swing variable. If Arizona lifts off McGreevy tonight, it comes from the left side. Watch: McGreevy's first pass through the order is his weakest -- 2025 TTO1 line .282/.327/.465 (.792 OPS) vs .677 OPS on the third pass. Innings 1-3 are Arizona's high-leverage window; if STL gets through TTO1 down zero, the script flips. | ||||||
|
KEY MATCHUPS
Burleson vs Gallen. Burleson is .296/.353/.478 vs RHP in 2025 -- the lineup's best platoon weapon -- and Gallen's road context (5.01 ERA) is the dragline. Career BvP is 0-for-6 with 2 K but the macro platoon edge trumps the sample.
Carroll vs McGreevy. Carroll is .267/.354/.575 vs RHP with 24 HR in 2025. McGreevy at home: 5.22 ERA, .911 OPS allowed to LHB. No career BvP sample on file; tonight is a profile bet, and the profile points to a real danger lane.
Nootbaar vs Gallen. 8 PA, 2 H, 1 HR, 3 BB, 0 K -- .400/.625/1.000 career line. The sample is small but the swing matches the profile: patient LHB against a RHP whose 2025 vs-LHB line still surrenders .748 OPS.
| ||||||
|
WATCHLIST
-- McGreevy-Crooks battery (Crooks 2 G / 8.2 IP). Crooks is the projected starting catcher; the broader Crooks battery sample with the Cardinals staff is 8.2 IP, 9.35 ERA, .385 AVG allowed. An unfamiliar pairing is a real first-pass signal-sequencing risk.
-- Carroll on the bases (32 SB, 84.2%). With a catcher unfamiliar with this specific starter, SB-attempt probability climbs early. Perdomo (27 SB, 81.8%) is the secondary runner.
-- Romero (88.5% IR strand in 2025). The leverage arm. If the game tightens in the 7th-8th with runners on, Romero is the call. Svanson (50.0%) and Graceffo (54.5%) are the volatility-risk alternatives.
|
Gallen's 5.01 Road ERA Meets Six Cardinals Lefties
Jun 25, 2026
•
2 min read