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YESTERDAY'S RESULT -- MIN 5, STL 4
STL 0 0 0 1 0 2 1 0 0 -- 4
MIN 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 1 0 -- 5
Series lost 2-of-3 to Minnesota. McGreevy held the Twins to 2 ER over 6.0 IP and left with a 4-2 lead in the seventh, then Romero allowed 2 hits and a walk while recording one out (2 ER) and the bullpen never stopped the bleed -- Kreidler's eighth-inning double off Soriano scored the go-ahead run. Wetherholt was the offense: 2-for-5 with a two-run HR (his 10th) in the sixth and an RBI single in the seventh; Burleson added a solo shot in the fourth.
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PREDICTION GRADES
WRONG -- Twins TTO1 scoring: Twins linescore innings 1-3 was 0+0+0 = 0 runs. Threshold 2+. 0 < 2.
CORRECT -- Cardinals HR total: Wetherholt 1 HR + Burleson 1 HR = 2 HR. Threshold 2+. 2 >= 2. WRONG -- Bradley walks: Bradley issued 1 BB in 6.2 IP. Threshold 3+. 1 < 3. WRONG -- Herrera reaches base: Herrera 0 H + 1 BB = 1 reach. Threshold 2+. 1 < 2. CORRECT -- Twins steals: Lewis 1 SB. Threshold 1+. 1 >= 1. Hit rate: 2/5 (40%) | ||||||
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BOTTOM LINE
Edge: May at Busch. His home/road career split is a chasm -- 3.24 ERA / 75.0 IP at home, 6.28 ERA / 57.1 IP on the road. Twelve of his 21 career HR allowed came on the road; only nine at home. Tonight is home.
Threat: Manny Machado, 9-for-33 (.273) with 2 HR in 35 career PA against May. .515 career SLG, the biggest BvP sample in this matchup and an active power signal -- this is the at-bat to game-plan around. Watch: May's second pass through the order. His 2025 AVG climbs from .226 (TTO1) to .290 (TTO2) and SLG from .347 to .508 -- a meaningful TTO2 cliff. Innings 4-6 are where this game tilts. | ||||||
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KEY MATCHUPS
Manny Machado vs May (35 PA, .273/.314/.515, 2 HR). Largest BvP sample in the matchup and the only one with multi-HR history. Machado's 2025 line drive AVG is .694 on the year -- if he barrels one, it lands. The first time through, May has to navigate this at-bat without challenging him over the plate.
Fernando Tatis Jr. vs May (26 PA, .261/.346/.435, 1 HR). Tatis pairs the second-biggest BvP sample with 2025 plate discipline (12.9% BB% vs May's 9.6% BB%). Career 32 SB / 7 CS on the bases makes him an extra-base threat once he reaches. Crooks is making his first start behind May -- pop-time calibration is part of this equation.
May vs Padres LHB bats (Sheets, Merrill, Wagner). May's 2025 vs LHB line is .261/.357/.495/.852 with 15 HR in 287 AB -- the platoon vulnerability is real. Merrill is .279/.336/.514 vs RHP in 2025 with 15 HR. If Padres slot the lefties heavily, May has to pitch off his sinker.
Bullpen fork: Romero (88.5% strand) vs Roycroft (41.7%). Two relievers, opposite ends of the inherited-runners table. Which arm enters with two on in the seventh decides the middle innings. Romero is the lefty answer to Sheets and Merrill.
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WATCHLIST
-- May TTO2 window (innings 4-6). 2025 OPS allowed jumps from .652 to .878 between the first and second pass through the order. If the Padres see May a second time with runners on, that is the swing window.
-- May-Crooks fresh battery. Crooks does not appear in May's catcher pairing table at all -- that history is all from May's prior club. First start together. Look for early-count mistake calls.
-- Walker against RHP. Walker is hitting .200 / .263 / .291 vs RHP in 2025 with a 31.8% K%. Cleanup slot tonight against a right-handed opponent starter (whoever the Padres start, the lineup is built that way). If he goes 0-for-4 with strikeouts, the Cardinals lose a high-leverage out.
-- Tatis on the bases. Career 82.1% SB success rate. Once he reaches first, expect a steal attempt -- particularly with Crooks debuting behind the plate.
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Dustin May at home is a different pitcher (3.24 vs 6.28). Padres bring nine right-handed bats into Busch tonight.
Jun 15, 2026
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2 min read