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YESTERDAY'S RESULT--BOS 7, STL 1
Ranger Suarez held the Cardinals to 3 hits over 6 shutout innings. Walker's solo HR in the 8th off Whitlock was the lone STL run. Svanson imploded in the 9th, allowing 5 runs on 6 hits in 1.0 IP. Contreras drove in 3 for Boston. Series tied 1-1.
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BOTTOM LINE
Edge: Bello's 9.00 ERA through 2 starts is backed by a 2.50 WHIP and 7 BB in 8.0 IP. He is walking batters at a 15.6% clip this season. Pallante's discipline-first approach (1.30 WHIP, 68.0% GB rate) should generate soft contact and force Boston to beat him on the ground.
Threat: Contreras is 3-for-4 (.750) career against Pallante with a 1.000 SLG and zero strikeouts. In 5 PA, he has reached base 4 times (.800 OBP). He drove in 3 last night and is locked in. Watch: Pallante's TTO2 splits are the weak spot -- .309 AVG, .796 OPS second time through (career). If this game is close through 4 innings, innings 5-6 are the pivot. The bullpen needs to be ready early. | ||||||
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KEY MATCHUPS
Contreras vs Pallante -- The Danger Bat
3-for-4 career with a 1.000 SLG, 1 BB, 0 K. Contreras has never struck out against Pallante. He also led BOS with 3 RBI last night. Pallante needs to pitch around him or get him on the ground early -- Contreras has a 44.8% GB rate, which plays into Pallante's 61.2% career GB rate.
Cardinals vs Bello -- Exploiting the Walk Rate
Bello has walked 7 in 8.0 IP this season (15.6% BB rate). Burleson (.296 vs RHP, .353 OBP in 2025) and Fermin (.280/.379 vs RHP) are the best bets to capitalize on free passes. Gorman and Burleson both have BvP HR against Bello (1 each in 2 PA).
Story's Legs vs Pallante's Delivery
Story stole 31 bags at a 96.9% success rate in 2025. He is 2-for-4 (.500) career against Pallante with a HR. With Herrera behind the plate, the running game needs attention. Duran (24 SB, 80%) and Rafaela (20 SB, 80%) add volume.
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WATCHLIST
-- Rubber match: STL won Game 1 (3-2, Apr 10), BOS took Game 2 (7-1, Apr 11). Winner takes the series.
-- Pallante's TTO2 career OPS (.796) vs TTO1 (.659) is a 137-point jump. The bullpen should be warm by the 5th. -- Romero (88.5% IR strand rate) is the fireman. Svanson (50.0%) gave up 5 runs in the 9th last night -- avoid if runners are on. -- STL was swept 0-3 by BOS in 2025, won 2-1 in 2024, swept BOS 3-0 in 2023. -- Both starters throw right-handed. STL lineup: 5 RHB, 4 LHB. BOS lineup: 5 RHB, 4 LHB. Balanced matchup. |
Contreras Is 3-for-4 Against Pallante. Both Pitchers Are Ground Ball Machines.
Apr 12, 2026
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1 min read