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YESTERDAY'S RESULT -- STL 5, MIL 1
MIL 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 -- 1
STL 2 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 -- 5
Cardinals bookended the scoring with a two-run first (Walker RBI double, Burleson RBI double) and a two-run sixth (Burleson's 15th HR, scoring Walker), sandwiching Fermín's solo shot in the fourth. McGreevy went 6.1 IP with 6 K and just 1 ER, and the Milwaukee run came late on Pratt's sacrifice fly. Burleson was the driver: 2-for-4 with a homer and 3 RBI.
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PREDICTION GRADES
WRONG -- Herrera reaches base: Herrera went 0-for-4 with 0 BB (0 reaches). Threshold: 2+. 0 < 2.
CORRECT -- Yelich hits: Yelich collected 1 H (plus 1 BB). Threshold: 1+. 1 >= 1. WRONG -- Brewers stolen bases: Milwaukee had 0 SB across the lineup. Threshold: 1+. 0 < 1. CORRECT -- Cardinals strikeouts: Cardinals batters combined for 7 K (Winn 1, Herrera 1, Velazquez 2, Pages 3). Threshold: 7+. 7 >= 7. CORRECT -- Walker reaches base: Walker went 2-for-4 with 0 BB (2 reaches). Threshold: 1+. 2 >= 1. Hit rate: 3/5 (60%) | ||||||
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BOTTOM LINE
Edge: Get to Henderson on the second pass. In 2025 he held hitters to .143/.200/.214 on the first pass, then jumped to .268/.333/.439 (.772 OPS) on the second pass. His profile is only 25.1 IP total and he has faced batters a third time in just 9 PA -- innings 4-5 are the window.
Threat: Jackson Chourio owns Pallante. In 11 career PA he is 3-for-5 with 5 walks -- a .600/.727/1.000 line. Pallante's second-pass line (.309 AVG, .868 OPS in 2025) magnifies the exposure, and Chourio will get two of those looks minimum. Watch: Pallante at home. His career home ERA (5.42) runs meaningfully worse than his road ERA (4.89) -- Busch tonight puts him in his uglier context against a Milwaukee lineup that is 6-6 on handedness with a switch-hitter. | ||||||
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KEY MATCHUPS
Jackson Chourio vs Pallante. The single biggest lever in this game. 11 PA, 3 hits and 5 walks -- .600/.727/1.000. Pallante's 2025 second-pass OPS allowed (.868) magnifies the exposure. Every Chourio at-bat is high-leverage regardless of the game state.
Alec Burleson vs Henderson. Burleson's 2025 vs RHP line was .296/.353/.478 across 419 PA -- the deepest lefty sample on the Cardinals. Henderson has been dominant against LHB in a small 60 PA window (.167 AVG, 18 K), but Burleson is the low-strikeout profile Henderson has not been feasting on -- 14.5% K% in 2025.
Turang & Yelich vs Pallante. Turang is 5-for-13 (.385) in the career sample against Pallante, no walks, one strikeout -- a contact-first threat that pairs with his 24 SB profile in 2025. Yelich is 2-for-12 (.167) with one of those hits leaving the yard. Two different attack modes back-to-back.
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WATCHLIST
-- Second pass through the order. Henderson's 2025 splits (TTO1 .143 AVG, TTO2 .268 AVG) and Pallante's (TTO1 .266, TTO2 .309) both point to the same window: innings 4-6 is where the game likely turns for both starters.
-- Milwaukee running game. Turang 24 SB (75% success), Chourio 21 SB (75%), Frelick 19 SB (76%) in 2025. Crooks catches tonight and has only 5 games paired with Pallante this year -- the Brewers are the deepest speed threat in the division.
-- Cardinals contact vs Henderson. Henderson ran a 33.3% K% in 2025 across 25.1 IP. Under a swing-and-miss framing, Crooks (37.0% K% in 2025), Walker (31.8%), and Church (27.7%) are the three Cardinals profiles most at risk if Henderson's stuff plays.
-- Bullpen fork if Pallante wobbles. Romero's 88.5% strand rate in 2025 vs Svanson's 50.0% and Graceffo's 54.5%. Which arm gets the first inherited-runner call decides whether a middle-inning Pallante mistake gets contained or compounded.
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Chourio Is .600 With 5 Walks Against Pallante. Innings 4-6 Decide Cardinals-Brewers Finale.
Jul 9, 2026
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2 min read