Cardinals (5-5) at Nationals (4-6)
Liberatore (LHP, 1.64 ERA) vs Cavalli (RHP, 2.79 ERA)
Nationals Park | 6:45 PM ET | Game 2 of 3 | WSH leads 1-0
Bottom Line
Edge:
Cavalli has a massive platoon split -- .221/.279/.372 (.593 OPS) vs LHB but .381/.442/.548 (.929 OPS) vs RHB in 2025. Stack five lefty bats (Burleson, Gorman, Wetherholt, Scott, Church). Cavalli's TTO1 .338 AVG falls to .263 TTO2 and .243 TTO3. Patience is the weapon.
Threat:
Liberatore's TTO2 is a red flag -- .310/.360/.511 (.821 OPS) with 9 HR in 252 PA. James Wood (.278/.330/.493 vs LHP, 12 HR) is the primary danger. Liberatore pitching away (4.03 ERA vs 3.69 home).
Watch:
Cavalli at home is different: 2.49 ERA, 25 K in 25.1 IP vs 6.17 ERA on the road. Bullpen implosion yesterday (Stanek 3 ER, Svanson 3 ER, 2 HR) makes pen management the swing factor again.
Yesterday's Report Card -- WSH 9, STL 6
Cardinals led 6-3 entering the 8th. Stanek (3 ER, 1 HR) and Svanson (3 ER, 2 HR) allowed 6 runs. Wood 3-run HR, House 2-run HR, Abrams solo HR. Urias starred: 3-4, HR, 2B, 3 RBI.
| Prediction | Grade |
| Pallante GB approach neutralizes speed | Partial |
| Abrams danger bat vs Pallante | Correct |
| Cardinals LHB vs Littell TTO2 | Wrong |
| Pallante TTO2 vulnerability | Wrong |
| Romero vs Svanson fireman gap | Correct |
| Herrera vs Littell BvP | Wrong |
Overall: 2 Correct, 1 Partial, 3 Wrong. The Romero/Svanson fireman call was the game's defining storyline.
Key Matchups & Watchlist
1. Cardinals LHB Stack vs Cavalli Platoon
Cavalli's .221/.279/.372 vs LHB (.593 OPS) vs .381/.442/.548 vs RHB (.929 OPS) is the defining matchup. Burleson (.296/.353/.478 vs RHP), Gorman, Wetherholt, Scott, Church give five lefty options. Stack them early -- Cavalli's TTO1 .338 AVG means he's hittable first time through.
2. James Wood vs Liberatore
Wood hit .278/.330/.493 with 12 HR vs LHP in 2025. He's 1-3 with a double in career BvP. Coming off a 3-run HR and leaping catch yesterday. Liberatore's 31.3% FB rate gives loft opportunities. Wood's .713 LD AVG means line drives are extra-base hits. Primary threat.
3. Liberatore TTO2 vs Hot Washington Lineup
Liberatore's .310/.360/.511 (.821 OPS) in TTO2 with 9 HR in 252 PA is the game's fulcrum. Washington scored 9 runs yesterday and has 64 runs in 10 games. Bullpen already showed fragility. Manager trigger has to be quick.
X-Factor: Cavalli's Inverted TTO
Most pitchers get worse over time. Cavalli gets better -- .788 OPS in TTO1 drops to .713 TTO2 and .675 TTO3. Cardinals must be aggressive first time through. At home (2.49 ERA), if he settles in, the window closes. First 3 innings are everything.
Season Context
Cardinals (5-5) at Nationals (4-6) -- Nationals Park, Washington DC. 6:45 PM ET / 5:45 PM CT. Game 2 of 3. WSH leads series 1-0.
NL Central Standings
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
| Brewers | 8-2 | -- | W2 |
| Reds | 7-3 | 1.0 | W4 |
| Pirates | 6-4 | 2.0 | L1 |
| Cardinals | 5-5 | 3.0 | L1 |
| Cubs | 4-6 | 4.0 | L2 |
NL East Standings
| Team | W-L | GB | Strk |
| Phillies | 6-4 | -- | W1 |
| Marlins | 6-4 | -- | L1 |
| Mets | 6-4 | -- | W3 |
| Braves | 6-5 | 0.5 | L3 |
| Nationals | 4-6 | 2.0 | W1 |
Cardinals Season Results (5-5)
| Date | Result | Notes |
| Mar 26 | W 9-7 | Opening Day, Burleson HR |
| Mar 28 | W 6-5 | Wetherholt walk-off (10 inn) |
| Mar 29 | L 7-11 | May shelled: 4 IP, 10 H, 6 ER |
| Mar 30 | L 2-4 | vs NYM |
| Mar 31 | W 3-0 | Pallante 5 scoreless IP |
| Apr 1 | W 2-1 | Winn walk-off single (11 inn) |
| Apr 3 | L 0-4 | Shut out by Valdez |
| Apr 4 | L 6-11 | Walker GS, Tigers 4 HR |
| Apr 5 | W 5-3 | Herrera 2-run single, O'Brien SV |
| Apr 6 | L 6-9 | 6-3 lead, bullpen implosion in 8th |
Starting Pitchers
Liberatore (STL, LHP) -- 2026: 0-0, 1.64 ERA, 11.0 IP, 4 K, 3 BB, 1.18 WHIP (2 GS). 2025 platoon: vs RHB .265/.304/.426 (.691 OPS), vs LHB .274/.348/.410 (.684). TTO: TTO1 .613 OPS, TTO2 .821 OPS (9 HR in 252 PA), TTO3 .597 OPS. Batted ball: 39.1% GB, 31.3% FB. Away ERA 4.03 vs Home 3.69.
Cavalli (WSH, RHP) -- 2026: 0-0, 2.79 ERA, 9.2 IP, 8 K, 5 BB, 1.34 WHIP (2 GS). 2025 platoon: vs LHB .221/.279/.372 (.593 OPS), vs RHB .381/.442/.548 (.929 OPS). Inverted TTO: TTO1 .788 OPS, TTO2 .713, TTO3 .675 -- gets better over time. Batted ball: 57% GB, 17.2% FB. Home 2.49 ERA vs Away 6.17 ERA. Pitching at home tonight.
Historical Depth (Through 2025)
2a: Cardinals Batters vs Cavalli (Career BvP)
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR |
| All Cardinals batters -- No data. First career meeting with Cavalli. | |||||
Bench BvP: No bench player has BvP data vs Cavalli.
2b: Nationals Batters vs Liberatore (Career BvP)
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR |
| Ruiz S | 4 | .250 | .250 | 1.000 | 1 |
| Wood L | 3 | .333 | .333 | .667 | 0 |
| Mead R | 3 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 |
| Wiemer R | 3 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 |
| Abrams L | 1 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 |
| Young R | 1 | -- | 1.000 | -- | 0 |
| House, Lile, Nunez -- No data | |||||
Small sample: All 4 PA or fewer. Wiemer 0-3 with 3 K vs Liberatore.
Bench BvP: No significant bench BvP history.
2c: Cardinals vs RHP (Facing Cavalli) -- 2025
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR |
| Burleson L | 419 | .296 | .353 | .478 | 15 |
| Winn R | 374 | .251 | .309 | .368 | 7 |
| Scott L | 332 | .221 | .310 | .317 | 5 |
| Herrera R | 328 | .268 | .343 | .399 | 10 |
| Gorman L | 309 | .201 | .294 | .349 | 9 |
| Walker R | 289 | .200 | .263 | .291 | 4 |
| Pages R | 276 | .225 | .264 | .364 | 9 |
| Urias R | 273 | .233 | .278 | .367 | 7 |
| Saggese R | 227 | .254 | .305 | .340 | 1 |
| Fermin R | 59 | .280 | .379 | .420 | 1 |
| Church L | 51 | .114 | .216 | .182 | 1 |
Cavalli's .929 OPS allowed to RHB elevates all RHB matchups beyond their individual splits.
2c: Nationals vs LHP (Facing Liberatore) -- 2025
| Player | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR |
| Wood L | 227 | .278 | .330 | .493 | 12 |
| Abrams L | 200 | .231 | .280 | .339 | 4 |
| Mead R | 126 | .205 | .286 | .268 | 1 |
| Young R | 103 | .225 | .317 | .270 | 0 |
| House R | 82 | .215 | .232 | .266 | 0 |
| Lile L | 77 | .254 | .303 | .380 | 2 |
| Ruiz S | 54 | .294 | .333 | .392 | 1 |
| Nunez S | 35 | .267 | .371 | .500 | 2 |
| Wiemer R | 34 | .214 | .294 | .500 | 2 |
Nunez (35 PA) and Wiemer (34 PA): small samples. Wood is the primary threat.
2d: Pitcher Platoon Splits (2025)
| Pitcher | vs | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR |
| Cavalli | LHB | .221 | .279 | .372 | 4 |
| Cavalli | RHB | .381 | .442 | .548 | 3 |
| Liberatore | RHB | .265 | .304 | .426 | 16 |
| Liberatore | LHB | .274 | .348 | .410 | 3 |
Cavalli's .160 AVG gap (LHB vs RHB) is extreme. Liberatore nearly neutral (.009 AVG gap).
2d-HA: Pitcher Home/Away Splits (2025)
| Pitcher | Split | BF | IP | ERA | K |
| Cavalli | Home | 107 | 25.1 | 2.49 | 25 |
| Cavalli | Away | 112 | 23.1 | 6.17 | 15 |
| Liberatore | Home | 314 | 75.2 | 3.69 | 63 |
| Liberatore | Away | 334 | 76.0 | 4.03 | 59 |
Today's game at Nationals Park -- Cavalli pitching at home. 3.68 ERA gap between home and away.
2e: Times Through Order (2025)
| Pitcher | TTO | PA | AVG | SLG | OPS |
| Cavalli | 1 | 90 | .338 | .450 | .788 |
| Cavalli | 2 | 90 | .263 | .450 | .713 |
| Cavalli | 3 | 39 | .243 | .432 | .675 |
| Liberatore | 1 | 264 | .237 | .376 | .613 |
| Liberatore | 2 | 252 | .310 | .511 | .821 |
| Liberatore | 3 | 132 | .244 | .353 | .597 |
Cavalli's inverted profile: worst TTO1 (.788), best TTO3 (.675). Liberatore's TTO2 (.821 OPS, 9 HR) is the danger zone.
2f: Inherited Runners Profile (2025)
| Reliever | IR | Scored | Strand% |
| Romero | 26 | 3 | 88.5% |
| O'Brien | 10 | 3 | 70.0% |
| Leahy | 29 | 11 | 62.1% |
| Graceffo | 11 | 5 | 54.5% |
| Svanson | 26 | 13 | 50.0% |
| McGreevy | 3 | 0 | 100.0% |
League average strand rate: ~68-72%. Romero (88.5%) elite. Svanson (50%) confirmed last night: 0.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 HR.
2g: Pitcher Batted Ball (2025)
| Pitcher | BIP | GB% | FB% | LD% |
| Cavalli | 151 | 57.0% | 17.2% | 25.2% |
| Liberatore | 463 | 39.1% | 31.3% | 27.6% |
Cavalli elite GB rate (57%). Liberatore more balanced, 31.3% FB gives hitters loft.
Nationals Hitter Batted Ball (2025)
| Hitter | GB AVG | LD AVG | FB AVG |
| Wood L | .242 | .713 | .071 |
| Abrams L | .235 | .708 | .082 |
| House R | .241 | .608 | .122 |
| Lile L | .258 | .621 | .123 |
| Ruiz S | .170 | .704 | .066 |
| Young R | .226 | .492 | .083 |
| Mead R | .299 | .690 | .062 |
Wood (.713) and Abrams (.708) elite LD AVG. Liberatore's 27.6% LD rate gives them opportunities.
2h: Liberatore Battery Pairing (2025)
| Catcher | G | IP | ERA | AVG |
| Pages | 15 | 75.7 | 3.93 | .279 |
| Pozo | 12 | 63.7 | 4.10 | .259 |
| Crooks | 2 | 11.0 | 2.45 | .225 |
2i: Baserunning Matchup (2025)
Nationals SB leaders: Abrams 31 SB (91.2%), Nunez 9 SB (90.0%), Wood 15 SB (68.2%), Young 15 SB (57.7%), Lile 8 SB (57.1%), House 5 SB (62.5%). Liberatore's 39.1% GB rate means fewer DP chances than Pallante's 61.2% yesterday. Nationals speed more dangerous tonight.
2j: Cardinals Defense (2025)
| Player | POS | DP | E | Fld% |
| Winn | SS | 64 | 3 | .994 |
| Burleson | 1B | 27 | 4 | .990 |
| Gorman | 3B | 11 | 6 | .950 |
| Scott | OF | 3 | 6 | .983 |
| Walker | OF | 2 | 4 | .981 |
| Urias | 3B | 18 | 3 | .983 |
| Saggese | 2B | 24 | 4 | .973 |
| Herrera | C | 0 | 1 | .989 |
2k: Ballpark Context
Nationals Park multi-year park factor: 96-102 (Baseball Reference). The 2026 one-year factor (116) is inflated by small sample through 10 games -- Nationals have scored 64 runs (franchise best pace). Historically neutral to slightly pitcher-friendly. Cardinals went 5-1 vs WSH in 2025, 4-3 in 2024, 4-2 in 2023.
2l: Cardinals Batter K%/BB% (2025)
| Player | PA | K% | BB% |
| Burleson L | 544 | 14.5 | 7.2 |
| Fermin R | 70 | 14.3 | 11.4 |
| Winn R | 537 | 19.0 | 6.3 |
| Herrera R | 450 | 18.7 | 9.6 |
| Urias R | 290 | 20.7 | 7.2 |
| Scott L | 463 | 24.0 | 9.1 |
| Pages R | 389 | 27.5 | 4.9 |
| Church L | 65 | 27.7 | 4.6 |
| Saggese R | 295 | 28.1 | 5.4 |
| Walker R | 396 | 31.8 | 7.3 |
| Gorman L | 402 | 33.8 | 11.7 |
High K%: Gorman (33.8%), Walker (31.8%). Low BB%: Pages (4.9%), Church (4.6%).
2l: Nationals Batter K%/BB% (2025)
| Player | PA | K% | BB% |
| Ruiz S | 267 | 9.7 | 3.0 |
| Lile L | 350 | 16.0 | 6.0 |
| Young R | 364 | 17.9 | 7.4 |
| Abrams L | 635 | 19.7 | 5.8 |
| Nunez S | 92 | 21.7 | 8.7 |
| Mead R |