Cardinals Look to Add to Team Record vs Skenes

PIT  0 0 0 0 1 0 2 1 0 -- 4
STL  0 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 0 -- 5

Cardinals took the third game in Pittsburgh behind Pallante (6.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 6 K, 0 BB) and a Burleson 2-run HR in the 5th. Herrera went 2-for-4 with the go-ahead RBI single in the 7th and scored twice. Stanek wobbled in the 8th (2 ER, 2 BB in 0.1 IP) but Soriano and O'Brien closed it out. STL leads the series 3-0 going into the finale.

PREDICTION GRADES

WRONG -- Pallante walk total: Pallante issued 0 BB in 6.0 IP. Needed 3+. Way under.

WRONG -- PIT TTO2 scoring: Pirates scored 0 + 1 + 0 = 1 run across innings 4-6. Needed 2+.

CORRECT -- Burleson reaches base: Burleson finished 1 H + 1 BB = 2 reaches. Threshold 2+. 2 >= 2.

CORRECT -- Cardinals K total: Cardinals batters combined for 11 K (Wetherholt 2, Herrera 1, Walker 2, Gorman 1, Church 2, Urias 1, Scott 2). Threshold 7+. 11 >= 7.

WRONG -- Cruz attempts SB: Cruz finished 0 SB and 0 CS. Needed 1+ attempt. None recorded.

Hit rate: 2/5 (40%)

BOTTOM LINE

Edge: Burleson is the only Cardinals bat with a real career sample against Skenes -- 18 PA, .353 / .389 / .412. Every other starter in the projected lineup either has fewer than 10 PA against him (Walker 7, Scott 7, Pozo 3) or none at all. The 3-hole is the path. Today's afternoon start narrows the route, but Burleson has carried the lineup all series and is the right name in the right spot.

Threat: Skenes himself. 2025 line: 29.5 K%, 5.7 BB%, 5.14 K/BB, .460 OPS allowed vs RHB. He has been the same pitcher away (1.96 ERA, 96.1 IP) as he is at home. Walker (.200 vs RHP, 31.8% K rate in 2025) has 4 K in 7 PA against him already; Winn (.167 in 18 PA) has zero walks against him career.

Watch: Dobbins TTO2 cliff. Second pass through the order is when his 2025 line collapses -- .208 AVG / .302 SLG TTO1, .300 / .480 TTO2. Innings 4-6 are where Pittsburgh's lineup, which posts a 26.5% to 32.0% K rate at the top (Reynolds, Lowe, Cruz), can punish a fastball that is back over the plate.

-- Dobbins TTO2 window. 2025 second pass through the order: .300 AVG, .480 SLG, .780 OPS in 105 PA. First pass is the strength (.510 OPS); the cliff is real and lands in innings 4-6.

-- Skenes TTO3 crack. 2025 third pass: .212 AVG / .397 SLG / .609 OPS, 6 HR in 158 PA. The only seam in his line. If Cardinals can get there, the late-inning at-bats matter.

-- Cruz on the bases. 88.4% career SB success rate (38 SB, 5 CS). Herrera behind the plate; Dobbins is a fresh battery for him in this dataset. Steal threat is live the moment Cruz reaches.

-- Herrera-Dobbins fresh battery. The catchers in the 2h table are from Dobbins's prior team (Carlos Narvaez 47.0 IP, Connor Wong 13.2 IP) -- Herrera is starting today and has 0 IP with Dobbins in this dataset. Watch first-pass pitch sequencing for any signal-clean-up.

-- Bullpen fork: Romero vs Svanson. Romero 88.5% IR strand rate (3 of 26 inherited scored). Svanson 50.0% (13 of 26). Whichever arm enters with runners on shapes the middle innings.