Cardinals couldn't keep it close

Were the 2026 Cardinals unlucky? They lost 30 games by one run in 2026, more than any other team in the majors. The Cardinals had not lost that many since 1998.

They lost so many mainly because they played so many. The Cardinals played 54 one-run games in 2026, tied with the Dodgers for the most in the majors. Eight teams had a worse one-run winning percentage.

Their runs say the record was about right. The Cardinals scored 720 runs in 2026 and allowed 749. A standard formula turns runs into an expected record, and it gave them about 78 wins. They won 77.

Better teams win more close games than worse teams do, but not many more. The way the Cardinals played their other games, they would be expected to go about 27-27 in 54 one-run games. They went 24-30, a normal miss.

The Cardinals were outscored mostly in lopsided games. Flip one close loss to a win, and the record moves a full game. The run totals barely move.

Through May 2026, the Cardinals went 31-26. Their runs predicted about 27 wins. From June on, they went 46-59, when their runs predicted about 51. The early luck and the late luck nearly canceled.

Most of that swing came in one-run games: 11-5 through May, 13-25 after.

In 2026, 13 of the Cardinals' 30 one-run losses included a blown save. Five of their 24 one-run wins did, too.

Riley O'Brien saved 38 games in 2026. He blew 5 saves in games the Cardinals lost by one run, and 4 of those came after June. Over the full season, the Cardinals' record matched their runs within one win. From June on, it fell about five wins short of them.

The Cardinals won about one game fewer than their runs predicted. Thirteen teams missed by more in 2026. The Brewers, who won the National League pennant, won 103 games in 2026, just what their runs predicted. They went 27-20 in one-run games.

A losing record tends to repeat the next season. A losing record in close games mostly does not.

A team with a losing record was more than twice as likely as a winning team to have a losing record the next season. In one-run games, the gap nearly closes. Falling short of what the runs predicted barely carries over, either.

Losing close games does follow losing in general. Since 1901, 62% of teams with a losing record in their other games also lost more one-run games than they won. Among teams with a winning record in their other games, 35% did.

From 1901 through 2025, there were 576 team-seasons in which a club lost at least six more one-run games than it won and played again the next season. That next season, those clubs won 48.1% of their one-run games. They won 47.0% of all their games, still a little below average. Only 39% had a winning one-run record.

Before 2026, the Cardinals had 22 such seasons. In 11 of them, the next season brought a winning one-run record. The 2023 Cardinals went 17-26 in one-run games. In 2024 they went 29-22. That year they won 83 games, though their runs predicted about 76.

The Cardinals went 9-10 in extra-inning games in 2026. A second common version of the expected-wins formula also gives them about 78 wins. We did not test whether the bullpen, the lineup or any decision caused the close losses.

2026 figures come from MLB's official data (statsapi): the final score and innings of every regular-season game, and each Cardinals pitcher's saves and blown saves by game. The game list reproduces every team's 2026 record. History comes from Retrosheet's game records, 1901 through 2025, with team names and official records from the Lahman database. We keep American and National League teams whose game-by-game records add up exactly to their official records. We leave out 2020, when teams played 60 games. A one-run game is any game decided by one run, extra innings included. Expected wins use the Pythagorean formula with a power of 1.83: runs scored to that power, divided by runs scored and runs allowed each to that power, times games played. The second version uses the power of 2. The expected one-run record comes from a line fitted to every team since 1901: one-run winning percentage against winning percentage in all other games. With the power of 2, 14 teams missed their expected wins by more than the Cardinals in 2026, not 13. Since 1901, a team's run differential per game has tracked its next season's record a little more closely than its won-lost record has, and far more closely than its one-run record. Each team is compared with the same club, under the same team code, the next season. A club that moved drops out for that one pair of seasons.