Burleson (.918 OPS vs right-handers, 6th in NL) faces Skenes while Lowe (.906, 8th) gets Leahy's weak side -- platoon edges cut both ways today

STL  0 0 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 -- 5
PIT  0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -- 1

The Cardinals beat Pittsburgh 5-1 last night, taking game two of three in Pittsburgh. Matthew Liberatore held the Pirates to one run over 5.2 innings, JJ Wetherholt went 3-for-4 with a run and an RBI, and José Fermín added 2-for-4 as St. Louis scored in two innings to Pittsburgh's one.

THE BREAKDOWN

WHAT WORKED
- JJ Wetherholt went 3-for-4 with a walk, driving in a run and scoring another as the Cardinals' offense built a 4-run lead through four innings
- Leo Bernal's single in the top of the 3rd scored Alec Burleson to make it 3-1 in a three-run third
- Matthew Liberatore allowed just one run on six hits over 5.2 innings, striking out six with no walks
- Luis Gastelum, Ryne Stanek, and George Soriano combined for 3.1 scoreless innings to close it out

WHAT DIDN'T
- Brandon Lowe's solo home run (34) in the bottom of the 2nd gave Pittsburgh the first run and left St. Louis chasing for a full inning
- The Cardinals went 10-for-34 as a team -- a .294 average -- but scored in only two innings
- Nathan Church went 0-for-4 from the eighth spot and did not score or drive in a run

BOTTOM LINE

Edge: Alec Burleson enters this afternoon as the lineup's clearest matchup advantage: his .918 OPS against right-handed pitching this season ranks 6th of 230 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances vs right-handed pitching (league average .700), and he faces Paul Skenes -- his stronger side.

Threat: Brandon Lowe sits on the opposite side of that ledger against Kyle Leahy. Lowe's .906 OPS against right-handed pitching this season ranks 8th of 230 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances vs right-handed pitching (league average .700), and he faces a right-hander today -- his stronger side (he posts .658 against left-handers).

Watch: Jordan Walker carries 28 home runs on the season -- 14th of 171 NL hitters with at least 200 plate appearances -- but faces Skenes on his weaker platoon side today, and he is 1-for-6 against Skenes in his career with 4 strikeouts. Whether his power carries through that combination is the question to track.

Alec Burleson vs. Paul Skenes. Paul Skenes is stronger against right-handed batters this season: .663 OPS allowed, compared with .683 OPS allowed against left-handed batters. The gap is narrow, and Alec Burleson steps in as a left-handed bat against the side Skenes holds less firmly. Career vs. Skenes, Burleson is 6-for-17 (.353 avg, .389 OBP, .412 SLG) across 18 plate appearances.

Kyle Leahy's third-pass escalation. Kyle Leahy's third pass is his weakest this season: 1.016 OPS allowed, after .575 on the first and .827 on the second. He has pitched into a third pass in 21 of 29 starts.

Brandon Lowe and Ryan O'Hearn vs. Leahy. Kyle Leahy is stronger against right-handed batters this season: .618 OPS allowed, compared with .850 OPS allowed against left-handed batters. Pittsburgh's two left-handed starters face Leahy's sharply weaker side. Ryan O'Hearn ranks 24th of 230 NL batters with at least 60 plate appearances vs right-handed pitching in OPS vs RHP (.852; league average .700). Both bat against their stronger platoon half today.

Paul Skenes's third-pass escalation. Paul Skenes's third pass is his weakest this season: .810 OPS allowed, after .666 on the first and .605 on the second. He has pitched into a third pass in 29 of 31 starts, making late-game at-bats the Cardinals' clearest path to offense.

-- Kyle Leahy. If Leahy reaches the Pittsburgh order a third time today, watch whether Oliver Marmol pulls him first -- Marmol has done so in 8 of his 29 starts.

-- Alec Burleson. If Burleson squares up early against Skenes -- he is 6-for-17 career against him -- watch whether his season-long production against right-handed pitching shows up early.

-- Rafael Flores Jr. If Cardinals baserunners reach against Skenes, watch Rafael Flores Jr. behind the plate -- he has thrown out 17.9% of attempted base-stealers (7 CS in 39 attempts) this season, compared with Henry Davis's 45.9% rate on the same roster.

-- José Fermín. If José Fermín continues his active 3-game multi-hit streak, watch whether he can sustain contact against Skenes -- Fermín faces him on the tougher side of his platoon split (.611 OPS vs right-handed pitching, .766 vs left-handed this season, 202 and 160 PA respectively), and his strikeout rate of 13.0% -- 13th of 171 NL hitters with at least 200 plate appearances -- gives him a contact floor to work from.