Assad Faces Six Cardinals Left-Handers Away From Home; Pallante's Second-Pass History Says Innings 4-6 Are the Swing Point

CHC  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 -- 2
STL  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 -- 3

Iván Herrera's walk-off double in the 10th inning scored Wetherholt and Walker, giving the Cardinals a 3-2 extra-inning win in Game 3. St. Louis was blanked through nine innings before Luis Gastelum allowed Pete Crow-Armstrong's 2-run homer in the top of the 10th — then the Cardinals answered with three runs in the bottom half for the win.

WHAT WORKED / WHAT DIDN'T

✓ WHAT WORKED
• Dustin May: 5.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER — held the Cubs to one hit and zero runs through five innings.
• Bullpen bridge: Bruihl, Stanek, Soriano, and O'Brien combined for 4.0 scoreless innings (5 K, 4 BB) after May exited.
• Iván Herrera: 3-for-5 with the walk-off 2-RBI double (17th) in the 10th inning.

✗ WHAT DIDN'T
• Luis Gastelum: gave up Pete Crow-Armstrong's 2-run HR in the top of the 10th (1.0 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 1 HR).
• Masyn Winn: 0-for-4 with 3 strikeouts.
• Cardinals were held scoreless through nine innings despite reaching base — 0 runs in 9.0 innings against Chicago's pitching.

BOTTOM LINE

EDGE: Assad makes the trip to Busch Stadium with a notable home/away gap in his 2025 numbers — 4.50 ERA away vs 1.59 at home. Six Cardinals left-handed bats (Wetherholt, Burleson, Nootbaar, Crooks, Gorman, Church) attack a pitcher who posted a .891 OPS vs LHB in 2025 (.293 AVG) vs .564 OPS vs RHB (.205 AVG).

THREAT: Ian Happ is Pallante's most dangerous matchup today. In 17 career PA, Happ hits .385 with a .529 OBP — drawing 4 walks and recording just 1 strikeout. He's the Cubs hitter whose sample is large enough to take at face value.

WATCH: Pallante's second pass through the order. His 2025 TTO2 split: .309 AVG, .868 OPS in 270 PA — a jump from .720 OPS in the first pass. Innings 4-6 are the pressure window this afternoon.

Ian Happ vs Pallante

17 PA: .385/.529/.538, 4 BB, 1 K. The deepest and most dangerous Cubs line in today's BvP table. Happ reaches base rather than relying on power, making him a consistent threat regardless of count or situation.

Alec Burleson vs Assad

9 PA: .375 AVG, .500 SLG, 0 BB, 0 K. Best Cardinals sample vs today's Cubs starter. His left-handed profile falls in the favorable platoon split (Assad: .891 OPS vs LHB in 2025), and his career BvP history reinforces that edge.

Masyn Winn vs Assad

6 PA: 5-for-5 (1.000 AVG, 1.600 SLG), 1 HR, 1 BB. Extreme small sample — treat as a wildcard. Assad handles RHB well (.205 AVG, .564 OPS in 2025), so this BvP history is a curiosity rather than a signal.

Pallante's second-pass window (innings 4-6) — His 2025 TTO2: .309 AVG, .868 OPS in 270 PA. The Cubs collect their best at-bats after seeing Pallante once. This is the primary risk escalation window today.

Assad's away split — 4.50 ERA away vs 1.59 at home in 2025. The Cardinals' left-handed majority carries more value than a neutral-park projection would suggest.

Walker and Herrera vs Assad — Both are 0-for-5 career vs Assad. Assad allows .205 AVG vs RHB in 2025. If the Cardinals' right-handed bats can't break through, the LHB core — Burleson, Nootbaar, Wetherholt — will need to drive the offense.